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Thursday, October 1, 2026

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@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

On timber companies $RYN and $WY. If the long end keeps going up. 6-7% which I think is definitely possible. Then timber companies will get crushed. But my overall thesis remains and is happening in real time: energy-driven inflation, fiscal deterioration, failed treasury buybacks, the Fed losing the long end. Right now the market is repricing duration before it reprices scarcity. This gap can run for decades. Equities were destroyed in real terms through 1973 and 1974. But hard assets won the decade. I’m praying both of these timber companies keep going down. Land is my favorite asset to own. You can see it. You can touch it. You can hunt on it. You can fish on it. And you can grow productive timber on it. Huge swaths of land have massive optionality. Let’s hope Scott “I am the house” Bessent continues to lose the bond market. I want to see a bloodbath here.

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales…

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click
OTIS · long

Otis Worldwide CORP

Otis Worldwide's largest global elevator installed base generates 95% recurring revenue, with service margins above 90% supporting a…

OTIS $24B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $88B
Hated Moats 1 click

U-Haul Bought at the Top

U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…

UHAL $12B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

PDD Supplemental

JD, Alibaba and Douyin are assessed for their competitive threat to PDD, with a specific investment stance on JD.

PDD $107BJD $35B
Bearstone

Deep Dive: Palantir ($PLTR)

Palantir’s forward-deployed engineering model underpins its AI software growth, but AWS, Microsoft and AI labs are copying it at scale as…

PLTR $455B
Rebound Capital

Blue Chips

Project Kilby, a planned Texas behind-the-meter data center twice Project Stargate’s size, would reshape Permian gas flows and boost demand…

GEV $264B
Doomberg

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