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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Added back $CRCT short too: One time tariff impacts make the financials look good, but the company is in structural decline: $26.7M of the $47.4M operating income was non-recurring $20.3M of IEEPA tariff refunds and a $6.4M royalty reserve release. Strip them and operating income is roughly half what printed, on revenue that fell 9%. The rest of the bear case: Hardware is in structural decline — down 22%, with lower ASPs on the Joy 2 and Explore 5 launches and heavier promotion. A razor-and-blades model where the razors are shrinking. Platform growth is 5% and subscribers grew 3% to 3.10M. That's the "good" half, and it isn't growing fast enough to carry a declining hardware base. Engagement is flat, not recovering. 90-day engaged users 3.49M against 3.48M. Management framed stabilising active users as a win, which tells you the trend it's stabilising from. Tariff refunds do not repeat. The Q2 comp next year is brutal.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Batch size sets the trade-off between speed and cost in AI inference. An AI server answers many users at once by bundling their requests into one batch. Our $CBRS note compares this to running a bus. There are two ways to run it, and each gives something up. 1. Fill the bus. Put as many passengers as possible on every run. More stops slow each passenger's trip, but the cost of the run is spread across more people, so the cost per passenger falls. Larger batches do the same: each user's answer is slower, and the cost per token falls because the system produces more tokens from the same hardware. 2. Carry fewer passengers and stop less. Each trip is faster, but fewer seats mean the cost of the run is spread less well, so the cost per passenger rises. Smaller batches are fast for one user and raise the cost per token. So in the analogy, speed for each user is how fast each passenger arrives. Cost per token is cost per passenger. A system set up for one gives up some of the other. When someone compares two inference systems, check the batch size behind each number. A speed figure or a cost-per-token figure quoted without it cannot be compared fairly.

Investor Letters

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $347M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

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