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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

An optical circuit switch never converts the light. A conventional switch takes light in, turns it into electricity, makes a decision, turns it back into light. An optical circuit switch steers the beam. The principle in the note: rather than optimizing a difficult conversion step, remove it. Three constraints follow. 1. Power. A 100-terabit-class silicon photonics OCS consumes only 200–300 W, against roughly 6,000 W for an equivalent electrical switch. More than a 20× advantage. The 200–300 W figure is measured with the amplifiers already in place. 2. Rate. The switch is optically transparent, so the same module supports 800G, 1.6T, 2.4T and 3.2T. It does not have to be replaced each time the transceivers get faster. 3. Insertion loss. Silicon photonics currently loses more light in transit than the MEMS alternative, so semiconductor optical amplifiers are added to restore optical power. That adds system complexity. Google buys these switches from optics makers, not from the usual switch-chip vendors. Calient, Lumentum ($LITE) and Coherent ($COHR) supply Google ($GOOGL).
@convequity 5 clicks

Convequity on X

Natural gas itself has not been the scarce input. The turbines have. Once AI data-centre load outran what the grid, renewables, and near-term nuclear could cover on a GW scale, gas became the compromise — and turbine demand surged from 2024–2025. Lead times still run roughly three to five years, with manufacturers already sold out into 2029–2031. That puts the first large batch of those ordered turbines on a delivery horizon closer to the next twelve months. As they arrive, and as behind-the-meter projects sit at or near gas fields, the incremental gas draw is likely to show up in a concentrated window, not a smooth ramp. Storage has grown only modestly while demand has risen, and drilling and pipeline buildout have stayed slow. New customers do not want to wait another three to four years for later turbine slots, so they are also exploring workarounds: reciprocating engines — internal combustion units closer to older, smaller airplane engines than to jets. The tech is not high-end blade metallurgy, so these generators can be mass-produced. They still prefer natural gas (more energy at the same density, and cleaner). Slightly less efficient than a turbine, but available sooner — and still burning gas. Either path concentrates the fuel draw. $AR, $EXE and $CRK are the producers sitting on that timing gap.

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $347M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

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