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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

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Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

FGPR $254MPRTH $642M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 12 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T
Net Interest 6 clicks
OFRM · long

Once Upon A Farm Pbc

Once Upon a Farm (OFRM) makes organic baby food, smoothies and kid snacks using high-pressure processing instead of heat pasteurization.

OFRM $674M
Value Investors Club

Deep Dive: Netflix ($NFLX)

Netflix's 325 million memberships and advertising business, guided to $3 billion of 2026 revenue, underpin a case for mid-teens…

NFLX $511B
Rebound Capital

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.5B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $1.3BDG $26B
Stock Thoughts

Everyone Bought the Shovels

Element Solutions sells consumable chipmaking chemistry, with a $75 target from $44 based on an AI-driven semiconductor-materials rerating.

ESI $9.1B
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