Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Back to today

From X

@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.

Investor Letters

All letters

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T
Net Interest 6 clicks
ACN · long

Accenture PLC

Accenture has been repriced as an AI loser despite its expected near-term benefit from AI adoption.

ACN $130B
Value Investors Club 1 click

OXY's Plan for Financial FREEDOM

Occidental Petroleum’s plan targets debt-free operations and roughly double 2025 cash generation under new CEO Richard Jackson, following…

OXY $55B
Open Insights

Meta: In Limbo

Meta is again prioritizing long-term investment over near-term profitability, testing investors’ trust in Zuckerberg as the company’s…

META $1.8T
TSOH Investment Research

Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $25B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

110 publications

Newsletters 93

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 42 of 206

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

72 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.