Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
Here is a link to our Q1 2024 letter. https://t.co/mVYPJrgCr1 $SWI $IMXI $ALTG $GENI $RTO $RCM $SLCA @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
@ragingbullcap @PropertyBigE $SEG could get very interesting. It'll be well capitalized and the approval of 250 Water St. definately doesn't hurt. I still need to see the S-1 filing and terms for the offering before making any major decisions but they've piqued my interest.
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
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