Myles on X
Closing my $QQQ and $SMH shorts here and lowering my $IWM exposure. I think we're bottoming here so keeping net long exposure, but the Q's and tech have really lagged over the last 2 weeks. Very happy with this trade.
Sector
Macro
Everything our editor has picked under this sector, best first.
196 stories
Serenity on X
Last time I've seen "It's all over" type posts was... 3 months ago during the situational awareness liquidation. And... 3 months ago before that... with Iran tensions + Oil + Helium + LNG fears/pricing. And... few months ago before that. I'm sure everyone remembers Deepseek back in like 2025 Each one had genuine risks, with rate hikes/margin liquidations to oil prices + supply disruption. And now financing/credit markets. Not trying to downplay the risks but haven't seen it materialize in the companies I'm tracking (eg. optical sector) given counterparty types + sector visibility + architectural shifts in 2027-2028. For example in this $LITE CEO interview, the guy said there hasn't been any order cancellation/delays given rate hikes. But obviously neocloud sector that uses heavy debt leverage might be different. I've seen that the general sentiment was a recovery after midterms in 2 weeks, I'm not the type to give predictions like that. We'll see Directionally bullish on certain sectors of AI supply chain like memory/photonics, but everything was sold off indiscriminately, even if they're not exactly the same trade.
junkbondinvestor on X
HY bonds losers from last week. Some familiar faces. $FMC $JBLU $UNIT $FUN $CRWV https://t.co/MvkKq0lssG
Farmer on X
@pansareV ChatGPT estimates it's lagged $VT by 5% since then. https://t.co/X6RvDRFOvf
Myles on X
I'm probably going to reduce my $QQQ short here significantly. Yesterday felt like a puke, seasonality is in its favour from here, rumours of $20b pods blowing up and most importantly: non finance friends asking me about the possibility of a crash.
Ian Bezek on X
@valuedrift Without naming that which should not be named, it is interesting Mexico $EWW is up 1.3% today.
SG on X
agree this stand the next few days is pivotal for $RTY $IWM https://t.co/mA1V6mYYrZ
Myles on X
@ArgonathCapital $IWM covers the junk and also covers market breadth which I'm bullish on.
Calvin Blissett on X
I kind of love this, sets up the capital slosh effect that happened in 2000s with the great rotation from tech to value. I think something similar happens here eventually and offers uncorrelated returns which will be more valuable. I will be eating dirt on value until then, clipping my coupons and buybacks. $KSPI $BOC $SLM $HHS $ZIM $CCLD $WU $HY $AMR $CNR $METC $HCC $FISV $YB $BTU $CNRD
Farmer on X
@finphysnerd I don't think that's short breadth unless your longs are mega caps. Short breadth would be like long $SPY short $RSP.
Myles on X
My book is usually structurally short breadth (basket shorts, concentrated longs). Currently I've concentrated my shorts a lot in specific areas and have a 8% $IWM + other small cap ETFS long as I'm very worried about a breadth rally.
TY · long Tri-continental CORP
Tri-Continental Corp is presented as a long investment-grade fixed-income idea for portfolios with limited liquidity and diversification.
Ian Bezek on X
@valuedrift $KORU down 81% from the recent highs but still up YTD. Has to be some sort of record.
Serenity on X
I mean it's probably more important to look at the actions over words... I'm sure $GOOGL trying to secure supply until 2035, would spark other hyperscalers to follow suit as well. They probably wouldn't be going 9 years out if they thought there would be overflooding in supply from China in 2 years.
SG on X
contrarian in me could not resist. Sold a few Jun27 17C against $SKHN the 2x daily short ETF for $SKHY https://t.co/S1eYAvyno5
A Capital on X
Trump is “jawboning” a peace deal. Cut Ukraine’s Starlink access, unfreeze Russian corporate assets, and suddenly everyone has an incentive to come to the table. A peace agreement would be a double catalyst for $KYIV: removal of the war discount and acceleration of underlying growth…
Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View
Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…
Pearl Gray Equity and Research 3 clicksSerenity on X
Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
October 2026 Random Ramblings
October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…
Broken Moats on X
Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP
October 2026 Random Ramblings
October’s podcast covers Starbucks-Chipotle merger rumors, SOLS’s cancelled deal, FICO competition, IMAX and Netflix, Oura’s withdrawn IPO,…
Broken Moats on X
Monster run past few days in retail -- $SHOP, $URBN, $EBAY, $ETSY $SHAK etc. especially considering where oil and diesel have traded and the results from $DPZ today..... seems selective still many laggards in each of those verticals - someone making a rates/inflation play or pure rotation slop as they sell chips? Weird(er) is the strength in rate sensitive plays like $w and even $trex relative t the rest of housing like $QXO, $BLDR, $low Opportunities in-between sectors to make our own call based on where you view the data
Farmer on X
@IHaveNoCapital @CliffordAsness Even $BTAL hasn't performed that poorly unless you only look back a few years.
The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides
Charles Lemonides argues the 18-year bull market has not reached its late-stage liftoff, pairing value-oriented semiconductor longs with…
