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Sunday, September 20, 2026

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Convequity on X

Samsara and the physical-AI narrative We exited $IOT. The market is still pricing it as a core beneficiary of the coming wave of AI-enabled robots in warehouses, offices, and homes. Our read is different. Samsara’s real differentiation is software orchestration for distributed IoT fleets, not proprietary sensors or hardware. The physical sensors are outsourced to Asian manufacturers, and the orchestration layer itself is exactly the part of the stack that AI coding tools are making easier to replicate. As a result, the competitive position looks less durable than the current narrative suggests.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Rubrik’s quiet edge in the agentic era As enterprises deploy autonomous AI agents, the real constraint is becoming governed access to trusted data — not just more models. $RBRK’s Annapurna is building exactly that layer: indexing unstructured data in place, preserving Zero Trust controls, and turning the backup estate into a secure, queryable foundation for AI. In a world where agents can move fast and break things, the company that already owns the governed copy of enterprise data is well positioned.
@convequity

Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK

Investor Letters

All letters

Brookfield of Dreams

Brookfield is recasting itself from an industrial owner into a $1.3 trillion asset manager and insurer, betting AI infrastructure can…

BN $82B
Net Interest

Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents

DoorDash's grocery push targets a shift from weekly stock-up trips to frequent online fill-in orders, though smaller baskets complicate…

DASH $81B
MBI Deep Dives 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/18/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers organized retail crime, Home Depot’s centralized operating missteps under Bob Nardelli, and research updates on…

HD $295B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

QNT: The 100× Question

Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and…

QNT $2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks
CPT · long

Camden Property Trust

Camden Property Trust owns multifamily properties across the U.S. Southeast and Southwest.

CPT $12B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Deep Dive: Grab Holdings ($GRAB)

Grab generates 53% of revenue from delivery, 36% from mobility and 10% from financial services, using its Southeast Asian marketplace to…

GRAB $13B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Copart 4Q26 Business Update

Copart's U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5% in 4Q26, largely from one customer loss, while international insurance units rose 11.2% and…

CPRT $26B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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