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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

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@BlueDuckCap 2 clicks

BDC on X

Maybe this earlier post is hyperbolic. But Specs potential is real and the applications are very real and the implied value to $snap is negative. Btw go back and look at all my snap tweets - been as big a bear as any of you. But the worm is turning. Sub business 85% yy $1b+ rr and ads stable and 16% HC reduction to cut $500mn opex and SBC offset by buyback. So there’s a lot to like here and if specs can get a minority investor which i think is much more likely after today then game on. Oh and by the way snap could still cut opex by 50% just to get in line with $rddt on cost/employee.
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

The trading action in $LEN should be pretty interesting following a disappointing print and underwhelming guidance (albeit not surprising). The stock trades at tangible book value with a 2.5% dividend yield (that used to mean something) and they look set to buyback 5-7% of the shares outstanding annually. They've moved their entire pricing and gross margin model down to meet the market so they can move volumes. They're moving units in Arkansas at $230,000. There's definitely a market at that price point. There's some controversy about their land bank accounting practices from the work of @hntrbrkmedia, but you still have a biz that's not impairing book and generating profits. Insiders own a fair amount, Berkshire bought last quarter. Is there enough bad news here? Is it finally washed out? https://t.co/j7W0oY1pY5
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Adestella @AdestellaInvest holds Dell $DELL as its largest position, arguing that agentic AI token costs push routine inference back on-premise, onto Dell servers. “AI-optimized servers such as Dell’s become an important component of capex budgets – a trend we’ve already seen begin in recent quarters (see graphs). It’s a bit of a full circle moment. A decade ago, enterprises migrated everything to the cloud and software was king; now, companies are re-adding on-prem capability and hardware reigns supreme.”

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Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks
IQV · long

Iqvia Holdings INC

IQVIA runs drug trials and gets paid regardless of whether drugs pass, while trading at a COVID-low multiple with potential AI benefits.

IQV $44B
Value Investors Club 1 click

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $45B
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