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Sunday, September 13, 2026

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Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BSX ?? flat over the past 5 years. Can point to slowing growth from very elevated levels as farapulse and watchman have larger bases, some competition entering these spaces, glp1 on the margin to case loads over time, new inhibitors that could be coming from Lilly, novo, but at current $ sure seems like a lot is baked in at current prices. Innovative cardio franchise that has: Revenue has effectively doubled - predominately from farapulse and watchman (not m&a) Operating income 1.8B to 4.1B EBIT - $1.4B to 4.1B 3.5x on EPS (.69 to $2.40/share current) gross, operating, net, ebit, ebitda margins all expanded over that timeframe FCF more than 2x, opcf 2.5x The difference is you get to buy it at the same share price today, shares outstanding are virtually flat. Perhaps the defensive nature of medtech is sold in the aggressive risk on market we are in but growth still solid here with dividend and margin of safety versus other areas certainly seems worth a look, as is the rest of medtech as a place to hunt for value to wait until the market rotates back
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Intensity and rapidness of recent moves is worth acknowledging. Not sure what to make of it. I understand the concept of oil/rates lower improving the backdrop for consumer discretionary but its not as if oil had not been trending lower for weeks, the deal always seemed more priced in versus priced out of markets *and china and us, Japan heavily released reserves to temper oil - so outside front month price movement - oil has been massaged lower for quite some time* Trying to understand what sets off names besides the incremental delta of lower rates.oil to send retail oriented names up 30-50% in a week or two? $ELF $CAVA $SHAK etc and some of these reported weak sales with lowered outlooks. Shak as recently as <2 weeks ago $MGNI - heavy insider selling past few days, stock is 30%+ in short time frame ELF $48-$70 in basically a week CAVA - $70-$92 in a few days -- $bros, shak similar moves $BIRK - pure short squeeze off float dynamics, but stock basically up 60% in a few weeks. Certainly a different market, but not sure its healthy to either see these names artificial pinned down in relation to the rest of the market narrative or react to slight incremental news with the some of the biggest runs in each individual companies entire trading history.....
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$SLP buyout today ends an ugly few years for the company. The core simulation software business, even in this ai world, still presents lots of value as key models are used by the FDA in drug approval process. But the management team after the founder stepped back destroyed the company with one destructive acquisition after another. Diluted the software with a heavy concentration on commoditized services revenue and less differentiated software assets, all purchased at high multiples to show "revenue growth". Mgmt destroyed the free cash flow, decimated the share price over the tenure but did allow management to rack up steadily increased compensation for themselves by growing the "size" of the company. A good case study in how poor management can take a wide moat business and turn it into a lousy one pretty fast. I imagine the new PE owners can extract out the bad business and excessive costs and generate a good return focusing on the original assets.

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Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B
Net Interest 1 click
HNRG · long

Hallador Energy CO

Hallador Energy, a coal producer, is pitched as a long based on five value components and potential 2026 catalysts.

HNRG $685M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $643M
Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks

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