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Thursday, September 10, 2026

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@orrdavid

David Orr on X

$SOXX made a sharp dive in from June 30th to July 29th. The fact that it still hasn't recovered a month and a half later makes this look a lot more like a 2000's twilight-before-the-collapse market than a 1999 bear trap. Put that another way: On a sharp sell off, you can easily point to technical / positioning factors being the cause. Situational Awareness's blow up could have been a textbook example. But it's just not working that way. In fact, we had a sharp sell off, and there's seemingly no fuel for a rebound despite AI improvement news seeming to come out strong. Markets have wisdom to them. It's worth listening, bull or bear. Right now, the set up seems super bearish, like the market knows there is a problem with AI. And the most likely problem I see is that there's simply no sites available to build more electricity-hungry compute centers. Someone smart I talked with recently pointed out politics could block AI as well ... which could exasberate that problem a bit by individual small local areas or by state and possibly by country. But I still think the root issue here is just not enough electricity, there's simple a hard barrier in the world of atoms that takes many years to resolve.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.

Investor Letters

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 5 clicks
SPSC · long

Sps Commerce INC

SPS Commerce, SPSC, runs a network software platform that lets retailers, suppliers and 3PLs exchange supply-chain and trading information.

SPSC $2.9B
Value Investors Club

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $35M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 8 clicks

Portillo’s: Strategic Reset

Portillo’s reset follows weak Texas unit economics, cutting next year’s openings to five from roughly 10 annually and shrinking store…

PTLO $286M
TSOH Investment Research

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $99B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

AppLovin: Deep Dive Analysis

AppLovin’s Axon AI matches advertisers with profitable users while MAX auctions app inventory, as investors question whether its…

APP $104B
Hated Moats

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