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Thursday, September 10, 2026

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TransDigm is still in it for the money

TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from sole-manufacturer components.

TDG $61B
scuttleblurb 1 click

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$TGT continues to run post earnings now at 17x next year before considering net debt load with earnings expected to shrink next year on less than 3% growth Tough weekend too. ATF with 1.8m members (teachers union) announced a boycott for back to school of Target last week and today are having to make public comments about a racially insensitive clown costume….. might seem on the margin but prior issues with pride and other campaigns were a key contributor to TGTs foot traffic problems
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

After Montgomery-Caribe and the impact on liability for brokers, and the general trend of dramatically higher insurance across the trucking space in recent years. How do people close to the freight market think about the truck rental companies like a U-Haul? If we are pushing liability on professional drivers, what is the case to give everyday drivers access to various side truck fleets and send them off to drive them on American highways? Clearly this practice seems unlikely to go away and U-Haul likely can pass escalating insurance costs on consumers better than the professional transport market but something to think about relative to margins and future demand in this space I think..... $UHAL
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

still feel the rotation from July-current is more about a short squeeze (the opposite end of the Situational Awareness portfolio) and the dispersion of having to unwind the long semi trade portion. But that rubber band is similarly stretched as it was the opposite direction at the end of June. Still feel its in the process of reversing (even the morning action today looks like a top could set in?) $RNG, $IT, $APPN, $TGT, $EXPE, $FDS, $PAYC, $ELF, $MET, $MFC, $GDDY, $V, and many more that were AI losers that have had incredible runs in the past 4-6 weeks seem like good ways to be short against a snap back to AI or a more seasonal unwind from policy risk trying to control rates, midterm/fall seasonal factors, etc. Especially with SaaS earnings taking the stage later this week and next (overshadowed by $NVDA on Wednesday)

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 5 clicks
FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $20B
Value Investors Club

Dollar Tree: Weathering The Storm

Dollar Tree’s $1.25 opening price and multi-price assortment supported 10% two-year comparable-sales growth, outpacing Walmart U.S.

DLTR $21B
TSOH Investment Research
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $83B
Valuation Rewind 2 clicks

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