Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DKNG Basically just said at the Craig Hallum Conference they are going to miss Q4 guidance. CEO: "literally had the worst stretch of the year, the last few weeks...sometimes that happens where you issue your guidance...So we'll see."
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Perhaps the most attractive long I’ve seen in years. Dominant \position in a category growing >20%. Major business overhaul taking hold after years of underperformance. Stock trades at 7x EPS/ 13% FCF yield due to low awareness of these structural improvements (see below)..
Voss Capital on X
In Voss's Q3 2023 letter we give updates on $ECN and $CROX and highlight a new long idea, $CRH (base case PT $120, 118% upside). Link here: https://t.co/iCyikUpqno https://t.co/NtFZk6UERg
Little Owl Research on X
If anyone has any questions on $HHH feel free to DM me.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $454MALM $4B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $78BMA $496B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $276B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $246BMCK $100B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $501M9301 $3.4B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1.1BVNP $1.9B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation
ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…
Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…
Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years
Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.
Khaveen Investments 
P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74
Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…
Pinterest: Underlying Growth Remains Stronger Than The Market Thinks
Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…
Richard Durant 2 clicks
WD #357: Tecnoglass/Tariffs, Colombia Mining Boom?, Airports & Airlines
Tecnoglass could recover tariff- and FX-hit margins as U.S. blanket tariffs on Colombian goods lift.
A quick update on Deep Dives
MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.
Celsius: The Pepsi Put
Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…
On Holding $ONON: I Bought the Shoes First, Then the Stock
On Holding $ONON combines a high-margin direct-to-consumer footwear model with replacement-driven demand, after Q2 2026 sales rose 21.6%…
National Vision Holdings: Higher Ticket Prices Can't Mask Falling Foot Traffic
National Vision Holdings' 2.2% same-store sales growth masked a 4.9% transaction decline, while inventory rose 37% and deferred marketing…
Number Cruncher 1 click
PESI · long Perma-fix Environmental Svcs
Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI) is presented as a long investment idea.
Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C September 7, 2026
U.S. CPI and PPI headline the September 7 week as the S&P 500 holds key averages, Bitcoin faces $82,000 resistance and gold tests its…
X-Energy Could Be Building One Of Nuclear Energy's Most Valuable Platforms
X-energy targets $1.8 billion in annual revenue and more than 42% gross margins by 2032 through reactor IP, project services and…
Simple Investment Ideas 2 clicks
AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer
AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…
The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does
Rayonier’s 4.0 million acres are valued at $393 an acre after other assets, versus $1,200 to $1,800 cutover-land sales, framing the timber…
Looking For A 2027 Defense Play: Honeywell Fits The Bill
Petri Dish Reports 3 clicks
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…
[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…
Intuit: The Recovery Is Only Beginning
Intuit targets 9.1% FY2027 revenue growth and 23% EPS growth after Q4 revenue rose 13.7%, supported by Global Business Solutions, Credit…
Treading Softly 5 clicks
Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.
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Seeking Alpha 31 of 175
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Bay Area Ideas
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Investor Overview
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catechwilliams
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Convequity
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Deep Sail Capital
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
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Fierce_beast
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kab60
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Sahil Khetpal
SG
Sheel Mohnot
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Timyan Bank Alert
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ToffCap
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Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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- Akre Capital Management, LLC
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Sectors
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