Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Raging Capital Ventures on X
$PANW’s margin is Anthropic’s opportunity? (Short $PANW) https://t.co/DdKt1BZqt0
BDC on X
@evanspiegel @elonmusk ... Lets make it happen! $SNAP $SPCX https://t.co/lInJY54AtQ
Lee Roach on X
If $APP e-commerce push is working then watch out. This could be a monster https://t.co/JUTqrG1WZH
Lee Roach on X
@justinian1800 Thanks for this. This is the kind of stuff I like to see on this platform and largely what I have seen from my research on $APP.
Trevor Scott on X
@ValueInvestShow There's always the $LULU $NKE risk on these things! I mean Biden was caught wearing a pair of Hokas..
SG on X
$RGTI Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni dumps $1.897m worth of shares per Form 144. Expect Form 4 by Monday. https://t.co/ZW8zjL4mZe
Broken Moats on X
$VLO $MPC monster moves, and crack spreads continue to blow out, foreign fight for distillate capacity etc....but the cure for prices is always high prices. Seems like we might be nearing the top for the refiners
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4.2BJXN $8.8B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $487B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $236B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.4B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $243BMCK $104B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.3B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.5B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.6B
Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…
Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years
Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.
Khaveen Investments 
P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74
Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…
Pinterest: Underlying Growth Remains Stronger Than The Market Thinks
Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…
Richard Durant 2 clicksA quick update on Deep Dives
MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.
Celsius: The Pepsi Put
Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…
On Holding $ONON: I Bought the Shoes First, Then the Stock
On Holding $ONON combines a high-margin direct-to-consumer footwear model with replacement-driven demand, after Q2 2026 sales rose 21.6%…
Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C September 7, 2026
U.S. CPI and PPI headline the September 7 week as the S&P 500 holds key averages, Bitcoin faces $82,000 resistance and gold tests its…
X-Energy Could Be Building One Of Nuclear Energy's Most Valuable Platforms
X-energy targets $1.8 billion in annual revenue and more than 42% gross margins by 2032 through reactor IP, project services and…
Simple Investment Ideas 2 clicks
AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer
AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…
HGV · long Hilton Grand Vacations
Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.
Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube
Shift4 Payments earns 50 to 60 basis points on SkyTab volume while acquiring merchant networks, driving 39% annual GRLNF growth since 2021…
Single Stock Spotlight #4: Global Payments (GPN)
Global Payments trades below 6 times adjusted earnings and about 7 times free cash flow amid Worldpay, competition and debt concerns.
We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.
A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…
Single Stock Spotlight #3: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources has retired more than 30% of its shares since 2022; higher structural metallurgical-coal costs could support…
Kazakhstan, Japan, and Trimming a Winner
Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…
Is the Airline Industry Really That Bad? – AerCap and A Case of Sandbagged Guidance
AerCap sells aircraft at 2x book value and repurchases stock near 1x book, cutting shares outstanding 31% in three years.
APi Group: How the story has evolved and what's next
APi Group hit its 13/60/80 targets in 2025, reporting $7.9 billion revenue, 13.2% EBITDA margin and 80% free-cash-flow conversion, then set…
Mispriced Domino’s Mention Contract: Kalshi Traders Haven’t Ordered This Yet!
Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…
Copart: 2Q26 Business Recap
Copart’s fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell 4% and U.S. insurance units dropped 11%, as underinsured drivers and carrier volumes weighed while IAA…
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