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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

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Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.

DECK $11B
Value Don't Lie 5 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I posted this mental model of $EVC in May when the stock was in high $7s. My price target for the company is $10 billion equity value or around $100 per share. Apparently some funds bought into Entravision based on this and didn’t do much of their own homework. I didn’t think I needed to say this but do your own homework if you buy a stock. I’m just some dude in rural America. I never went to college. Worked third shift in a factory all my adult life. Now I talk about stocks I like, invest my money and tweet jokes. That being said, nothing has changed with my thesis on Entravision being a potential multi-bagger. Q2 was an amazing quarter. Q3 will be an amazing quarter. You don’t measure a businesses success over a quarter, which it seems like many are doing. The best investing is done over long periods of time. Patience is the best tool for the best success. Tell me, has anything changed with the thesis? The industry is growing at a 30-50% annual rate. As long as Entravision can keep improving their models they will likely continue to grow at the industry rate. And over the past few years they have smoked the industry. One quarter of deceleration? Who cares. They probably had a model breakthrough in Q2 that accelerated revenues and I’m sure the World Cup also helped their CTV business. And to be frank, this management team is one of the most conservative teams I know. They literally start every call talking about the dying media business. Do the math on what Q4 implies if you think it’s over. Just do it. The DSP business model is one of the best I’ve ever seen. Low capital costs. Extremely high incremental margins. Scalable. Negative working capital. Back out of the media business and the spectrum assets - which are looking like they could get bid over near-term (near term is way different for me than Wall Street’s two second of pleasure btw) and you are buying Ad-Tech for an extremely low multiple, or close to nothing. I could be wrong. I don’t think there’s crazy downside here. But just remember, I’m not from the industry. I made bathtubs for a living until I started blogging. So definitely do you own research before buying blindly based on my thoughts. It is hilarious though that hedge funds were buying because of my research. Can’t wait to tell some of the guys at the shop I worked at about that. Over some Steel Reserve and Lucky Strike smokes, of course.

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

CELH $7.1B
TSOH Investment Research 8 clicks

Titan Mining Q2 Update

Titan Mining reported Q2 revenue of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.6 million as zinc output rose, while advancing its Kilbourne…

TII $309M
Sylence Capital 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…

CELH $7.1B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

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