Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel model.
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel model.
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
Here is a little pricing guide for any of you looking into $HHH at the moment. Credit to @mfwarder for the format. https://t.co/MeZP5qopmR
@marginofdanger @BillAckman Additionally, $HHH as a pure play MPC is much more valuable than the sum of its parts. Though the market doesn't understand it well at the moment it will likely come to appreciate it more as it grows and produces substantial FCF. Patience is key here.
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
$DKNG Basically just said at the Craig Hallum Conference they are going to miss Q4 guidance. CEO: "literally had the worst stretch of the year, the last few weeks...sometimes that happens where you issue your guidance...So we'll see."
Lululemon’s Americas revenue fell 8% and comps dropped 12%, while a $134.5 million tariff refund masked weakening underlying margins after…
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