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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

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@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Whirlpool's credit curve is interesting because the belly of the curve is much wider than the long end. Typically, the further out a maturity is, the higher the credit spread required to compensate you for the additional risk. Here, the dollar price of the long bonds is so low, they carry less downside per dollar to the same recovery, plus all the torque to any good outcome (asset sales, M&A, turnaround, etc). Investors are paying a premium for that $WHR
@orrdavid 2 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $638M
The Oak Bloke 11 clicks

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