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Tuesday, September 1, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$TGT continues to run post earnings now at 17x next year before considering net debt load with earnings expected to shrink next year on less than 3% growth Tough weekend too. ATF with 1.8m members (teachers union) announced a boycott for back to school of Target last week and today are having to make public comments about a racially insensitive clown costume….. might seem on the margin but prior issues with pride and other campaigns were a key contributor to TGTs foot traffic problems
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Someone just sent me a brief slide deck on $MCD and it made me realize that I never, I mean never hear anyone talk about it on this platform. Not even @jeffmacke mentions $MCD at his 3:45AM Denny's sessions and he likes to keep everyone on their toes about monster consumer franchises that receive little investor attention in this tech driven era. It did remind me that Ron Dottin called the bottom in this stock in late 2002 after $MCD went through 3-CEOs in a few years (one of which who died) and the company was seemingly in shambles. The stock went up 5x in 5-years. That was back when that meant something. On paper, $MCD looks like the least interesting setup (long or short) I've seen in a really long time.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

After Montgomery-Caribe and the impact on liability for brokers, and the general trend of dramatically higher insurance across the trucking space in recent years. How do people close to the freight market think about the truck rental companies like a U-Haul? If we are pushing liability on professional drivers, what is the case to give everyday drivers access to various side truck fleets and send them off to drive them on American highways? Clearly this practice seems unlikely to go away and U-Haul likely can pass escalating insurance costs on consumers better than the professional transport market but something to think about relative to margins and future demand in this space I think..... $UHAL

Investor Letters

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

UWMC $2.4B
Yet Another Value Podcast 25 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.2B
The Oak Bloke 16 clicks

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