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Monday, August 31, 2026

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I posted this mental model of $EVC in May when the stock was in high $7s. My price target for the company is $10 billion equity value or around $100 per share. Apparently some funds bought into Entravision based on this and didn’t do much of their own homework. I didn’t think I needed to say this but do your own homework if you buy a stock. I’m just some dude in rural America. I never went to college. Worked third shift in a factory all my adult life. Now I talk about stocks I like, invest my money and tweet jokes. That being said, nothing has changed with my thesis on Entravision being a potential multi-bagger. Q2 was an amazing quarter. Q3 will be an amazing quarter. You don’t measure a businesses success over a quarter, which it seems like many are doing. The best investing is done over long periods of time. Patience is the best tool for the best success. Tell me, has anything changed with the thesis? The industry is growing at a 30-50% annual rate. As long as Entravision can keep improving their models they will likely continue to grow at the industry rate. And over the past few years they have smoked the industry. One quarter of deceleration? Who cares. They probably had a model breakthrough in Q2 that accelerated revenues and I’m sure the World Cup also helped their CTV business. And to be frank, this management team is one of the most conservative teams I know. They literally start every call talking about the dying media business. Do the math on what Q4 implies if you think it’s over. Just do it. The DSP business model is one of the best I’ve ever seen. Low capital costs. Extremely high incremental margins. Scalable. Negative working capital. Back out of the media business and the spectrum assets - which are looking like they could get bid over near-term (near term is way different for me than Wall Street’s two second of pleasure btw) and you are buying Ad-Tech for an extremely low multiple, or close to nothing. I could be wrong. I don’t think there’s crazy downside here. But just remember, I’m not from the industry. I made bathtubs for a living until I started blogging. So definitely do you own research before buying blindly based on my thoughts. It is hilarious though that hedge funds were buying because of my research. Can’t wait to tell some of the guys at the shop I worked at about that. Over some Steel Reserve and Lucky Strike smokes, of course.

Investor Letters

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $638M
The Oak Bloke 11 clicks

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $39MHHS $31M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 11 clicks

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