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Sunday, August 30, 2026

Emerge Commerce ($ECOM.V) FINS Review

Emerge Commerce's $44 million COVID-era acquisitions produced losses and impairments, while modestly improved Q2 liquidity leaves its balance sheet and capital needs under scrutiny.

EMCMF $10M
Wolf's Substack 10 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Sector action is bizarre today --- travel/discretionary (ex amazon (who posted very lousy prime sales) are surging), housing and adjacent like furniture ($w $wsm), biotech adjacent bid ($rgen, $medp) and waste stocks ($wcn). You want to derrick micron, I get it. And I get gas prices lower, market expects to fade out rate cuts that were priced moving forward as Warsh moves to trim mean/new data versus actually being hawkish, and some impact on a name like $hd off the housing bill. But all of these things are at the margin and known leading up to today --- so why target, kbh (on relatively inline to disappointing numbers yesterday) Expedia today versus yesterday? Market moves in very funny ways recently
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

If you're wondering just how unusual this year has been, here's yet another way to look at it. TWENTY THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That's by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999..... History suggests this type of unrelenting bid will not be sustained. As you look at the list below, you'll notice the only non-AI/semis/data center stock in the S&P 500 that has doubled is $MRNA, which was down (-90%+) from its COVID19 highs. If you're looking for doubles or 10-baggers going forward, perhaps it's time to look outside of the data center trade... $SNDK $WDC $STX $MU $INTC $DELL $MRVL $FLEX $AMD $AMAT $LITE $GLW $LRCX $TER $ON $COHR $MRNA $FIX $HPE $GNRC $KLAC $Q
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Anybody see this run in $WNC? crazy, gone from serious balance sheet risk to the fastest trade in the market. Company commented they might get to a replacement market next year (versus years of tough order books) and the commerce ruling on dumping from china that will put tariffs on Chinese suppliers (maybe 20% of the market?) should help those 27' numbers. But issues remain in what is a pretty poor business when the dominant industry player fluctuates on bankruptcy each cycle.

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 7 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $647M
The Oak Bloke 10 clicks

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $32M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 11 clicks

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