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Sunday, August 30, 2026

Emerge Commerce ($ECOM.V) FINS Review

Emerge Commerce's $44 million COVID-era acquisitions produced losses and impairments, while modestly improved Q2 liquidity leaves its balance sheet and capital needs under scrutiny.

EMCMF $10M
Wolf's Substack 9 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

I still own $AIRS and think it will work. The company is in a much better financial and operational position than it was a year ago. Heading into the quarter, I thought they would post 3-5% same center comps, instead we got a 1% and they stated June/July was "soft". Guidance came down $1.0-$1.5MM for EBITDA, probably not the stuff (-40%+) declines are made of, but you have a ton of fast money and retail here. Brutal. However, the company spent a fair amount on top of the funnel brand marketing the past 3-6 months, the returns on that spend are longer tail in nature. Leverage is <2.0x now. They keep adding to the "menu" for procedures, which should drive significant improvements in site utilization and incremental margins that could approach 40-50%. This business has the potential to reach 150-200 units at 20-25% EBITDA margins. That would represent $1.0B in topline and $200MM+ of EBITDA. Obviously that doesn't happen anytime soon, but they can get back to de novo site expansion of 2-4 units a year starting in 2027 to get the growth flywheel going. The industry remains incredibly fragmented and the GLP-1 tailwinds for aesthetics are quite real. It's kind of remarkable the stock trades like this given the size of the float, which is probably only 12-13MM shares. Hopefully we'll see some insider buying in the coming days. At these levels, this would be an attractive asset for quite a few potential buyers IMO.

Investor Letters

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 6 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $696M
The Oak Bloke 10 clicks
EGO · long 2026-06-01

Eldorado Gold CORP

Eldorado Gold (EGO) is a long-life gold and copper miner with a rare growth profile across precious and base metals.

EGO $13B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks
CNR · long 2026-06-01

Core Natural Resources INC

Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…

CNR $4.9B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks
NCNO · long 2026-06-01

Ncino INC

NCino is a commercial-lending system of record for banks and credit unions, trading at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales.

NCNO $2.5B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks
CNH · long 2026-05-31

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $14B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks
GPK · long 2026-05-31

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $3.4B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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