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Saturday, August 29, 2026

From X

@marginofdanger 11 clicks

marginofdanger on X

$LIEN is an interesting small cap BDC. $13.26/share NAV, stock last $10.20/share, dividend yield of 13.3%. Company is doing an all-stock deal with $REFI which will essentially double the asset base to c. $800 million. Larger asset base should help narrow NAV discount given economies of scale and better cost of capital. Portfolio is largely cannabis credit, which is high coupon / low leverage and the $LIEN mgmt team has done a good job with its credit underwriting.
@marginofdanger 6 clicks

marginofdanger on X

$LIEN is an interesting small cap BDC. $13.26/share NAV, stock last $10.20/share, dividend yield of 13.3%. Company is doing an all-stock deal with $REFI which will essentially double the asset base to over $600 million. Larger asset base should help narrow NAV discount given economies of scale and better cost of capital. Portfolio is largely cannabis credit, which is high coupon / low leverage and the $LIEN mgmt team has done a good job with its credit underwriting.
@majgeoinvesting 3 clicks

Maj Soueidan on X

With OCC, using historical backlog, conversion multiples, the backlog implies that they can report $.25 EPS. The wildcard here is two things. 1. Have operating expenses stabilized? 2. Will backlog remain strong so that the company can at least hold that new level of EPS if they achieve it? To be clear, a bullish EPS outlier scenario could occur because I used the historical low-end backlog to revenue multiplier. I haven’t modeled $RFIL. I’m just using their shareholder letter as a barometer, where they talk about stronger markets and more visibility. It’s worth noting that both companies are moving into their seasonally stronger quarters. They’re also both benefiting from a recovery in their legacy telecom markets. Furthermore, I don’t think either of them have seen much contribution from their data center business. So, hopefully, you have this perfect storm situation where their legacy markets, along with new markets are hitting it in stride at the same time Personally, I think RFIL is the better company, long-term, but that OCC can have the biggest wow factor for the quarter. RFIL has done a better job at addressing its entire business plan to reduce cyclicality, even within its legacy markets. I’m not convinced OCC has done that.

Investor Letters

All letters

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $696M
The Oak Bloke 8 clicks
CBT · short 2026-05-02

Cabot CORP

Cabot’s short case targets a market pricing FY26 EPS of $6.00–$6.50 as trough earnings and assigning value to its battery-materials…

CBT $4.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks
AMPX · short 2026-05-02

Amprius Technologies, Inc.

Amprius Technologies derives 94% of revenue from licensing despite its silicon-anode battery supplier narrative for defense and aerospace…

AMPX $1.4B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks
ZG · long 2026-05-01

Zillow Group INC

Zillow is pitched as a long with a $72 target, implying 58% upside from trough earnings and a trough valuation multiple.

ZG $8.3B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks
PSKY · short 2026-04-30

Paramount Skydance CORP

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is a levered media conglomerate expected to merge with Warner Bros. Discovery in the third quarter.

PSKY $12B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks
QXO · long 2026-04-30

QXO, Inc.

QXO, led by Brad Jacobs, is consolidating North America’s fragmented building-products distribution industry after rapidly building scale…

QXO $14B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks
PEPG · long 2026-05-01

Pepgen INC

PEPGen (PEPG) was bought at $1.40 in February 2025 and sold in the mid-$3s the next business day.

PEPG $220M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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