Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@LownTrevor if you believe that’s the consensus then $TTWO not for you
Chris Camillo on X
Please let $TTWO open flat tomorrow because tonight’s GTA VI reaction is “priced in” test me
Timyan Bank Alert on X
Mutual Federal Bancorp, $MFDB Announces Adoption of Plan of Conversion and Reorganization to Undertake Second Step ... https://t.co/BkyVGHPxWU
Chris Camillo on X
We currently have only one real datapoint to work off from today’s gameplay reveal: depth of player interest in the gameplay. The better the gameplay, the greater the long-term monetization opportunity for $TTWO. That’s the variable I don’t think is priced in yet, and it’s what gives this trade meaningful upside and downside.
Chris Camillo on X
Ran dozens of social arb probability scenarios for how the world would react to today’s GTA VI gameplay reveal. This is playing out like a top 5% outcome. Did not expect this. Feels like the market came into today anchored to last week’s hacker leaks and primed for disappointment. It may take a minute to process what just happened. $TTWO
Maj Soueidan on X
What's the one stock you hope falls due to a "blip" quarter that is likely temporary due to unusual circumstances or investor misinterpretation? Two of my wishes already came true with $SIF and $KLNG. Could throw $FSI into the mix. Next on this early Christmas wish list? $PPIH
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Maj Soueidan on X
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $143M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81BIX $43B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $42BIMO $60B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 006400 $31BIKTSF $12B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $99BADYEN $33B
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
ArcelorMittal’s regional steel franchises, integrated mining and India expansion are lifting EBITDA per ton and supporting per-share…
Capital Connoisseur 1 click
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
FUTU 2026-08-23 Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report
Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…
Emanuel Nemec 4 clicks
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
STRL · short Sterling Infrastructure INC
Sterling Infrastructure short pairs STRL against EME and FIX, arguing data-center sitework contractors lack the margin upside available to…
Biorem Inc. ($BRM.V) FINS Review
Biorem reported 66% revenue growth and over 260% profit growth after trading at 11.3 times earnings and 5.9 times EV/EBITDA.
DoorDash: The Infrastructure of Local Commerce
DoorDash built a last-mile logistics network around restaurant delivery, then extended it to groceries, convenience, and other local…
DoorDash
DoorDash positions itself as infrastructure for local commerce.
Under the Hood - Adobe Inc. ($ADBE)
Adobe generates 96% of revenue from subscriptions and converts over 40% into free cash flow, but generative AI tests whether Creative…
Hidden in Plane Sight
An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…
AirIQ Inc. ($IQ.V) FINS Review
AirIQ’s 2025 revenue rose 17% to $6.5 million, but tax reassessments cut net income 50% and lifted its P/E to 144x.
Under the Hood - Tractor Supply ($TSCO)
Tractor Supply’s 2,602-store rural retail network supported 30+ years of growth.
Gatekeeper Systems ($GSI.V) FINS Review
Gatekeeper Systems’ revenue rebound is overshadowed by $19.3 million in nine-month operating cash burn, swelling inventory and overdue…
RI(N)sing higher
RIN prices near all-time highs reflect tighter renewable-fuel mandates, a shrinking credit bank, and biodiesel production shortfalls.
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- 1851 Capital
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