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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$TGT continues to run post earnings now at 17x next year before considering net debt load with earnings expected to shrink next year on less than 3% growth Tough weekend too. ATF with 1.8m members (teachers union) announced a boycott for back to school of Target last week and today are having to make public comments about a racially insensitive clown costume….. might seem on the margin but prior issues with pride and other campaigns were a key contributor to TGTs foot traffic problems
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Someone just sent me a brief slide deck on $MCD and it made me realize that I never, I mean never hear anyone talk about it on this platform. Not even @jeffmacke mentions $MCD at his 3:45AM Denny's sessions and he likes to keep everyone on their toes about monster consumer franchises that receive little investor attention in this tech driven era. It did remind me that Ron Dottin called the bottom in this stock in late 2002 after $MCD went through 3-CEOs in a few years (one of which who died) and the company was seemingly in shambles. The stock went up 5x in 5-years. That was back when that meant something. On paper, $MCD looks like the least interesting setup (long or short) I've seen in a really long time.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

After Montgomery-Caribe and the impact on liability for brokers, and the general trend of dramatically higher insurance across the trucking space in recent years. How do people close to the freight market think about the truck rental companies like a U-Haul? If we are pushing liability on professional drivers, what is the case to give everyday drivers access to various side truck fleets and send them off to drive them on American highways? Clearly this practice seems unlikely to go away and U-Haul likely can pass escalating insurance costs on consumers better than the professional transport market but something to think about relative to margins and future demand in this space I think..... $UHAL
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

still feel the rotation from July-current is more about a short squeeze (the opposite end of the Situational Awareness portfolio) and the dispersion of having to unwind the long semi trade portion. But that rubber band is similarly stretched as it was the opposite direction at the end of June. Still feel its in the process of reversing (even the morning action today looks like a top could set in?) $RNG, $IT, $APPN, $TGT, $EXPE, $FDS, $PAYC, $ELF, $MET, $MFC, $GDDY, $V, and many more that were AI losers that have had incredible runs in the past 4-6 weeks seem like good ways to be short against a snap back to AI or a more seasonal unwind from policy risk trying to control rates, midterm/fall seasonal factors, etc. Especially with SaaS earnings taking the stage later this week and next (overshadowed by $NVDA on Wednesday)
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Yes, you're touching on some of the issues that $Z/$ZG faces in the residential real estate landscape. There are reasons that the stock trades at 8-9x FY27 consensus EBITDA even though the company continues to grow revenues at a mid-teens clip YOY organically while generating huge FCF. We've written HUNDREDS of pages on these issues so this is not the right forum to litigate the relative merits of any of these concerns. Zillow has a lot of organic initiatives that should sustain growth for the next few years. From all my work, the commission structure of the industry is not changing much right now, but of course that seems inevitable at some point. If you really drill down to what $Z/$ZG is doing strategically it's all about becoming more deeply integrated into the transaction. Follow-up Boss was the most important acquisition the company ever made IMO. You don't need to see around corners here, but you have to look through the noise to see what the company's doing.

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NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks
ANET · long

Arista Networks INC

Arista Networks, at about $150 per share, is a $190 billion data-center networking franchise generating $9.7 billion of LTM revenue with…

ANET $259B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

PYPL $45B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $99B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

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