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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Continue to believe that expiration this week will be the culmination in the software squeeze. Money will want to come off the table ahead of earnings season for the sector, and I think that will be followed with an acknowledgment from earnings that while their revenues are not at risk today - these companies still do face increased competition, lower barriers, higher costs for cloud/inference, and seat based model problems that will be challenging moving forward. The $WDAY rumor news was not the floor, it was the peak counter narrative to AI disruption.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Impressive just how many healthcare companies with no direct or derivative exposure today or at any point to the $MRNA news can rally 10%+ on the day. Be smart for these companies to pocket these gains with secondaries and solidify fragile balance sheets, but in the ultimate short term pump market their management teams will no doubt not want to interrupt their stocks squeeze potential and will not issue shares, but aggressively unload their options
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

Could happen. Also - there will be a massive 2ndary soon and insiders will start dumping shares. I wish this was a cure for cancer. It is not. If it ever even commercializes (still a big if) it will be just another thearaputic that will be sold along with Keytruda and in some cases may deter relapse. That's it. In fact, we may learn that the same lipid nano particles that the mrna technology relies on and which have been speculated to be a cancer causer in their own right (hint, they are) actually cause occurence of other cancers such as colon and pancreatic and breast. Does lowering recurrence in melanoma in exchange for a higher chance of colon cancer sound like a "cure"? I wish it was. No material position as of now. Congrats to bulls, I guess. $MRNA

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Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $26B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks
STRL · short

Sterling Infrastructure INC

Sterling Infrastructure short pairs STRL against EME and FIX, arguing data-center sitework contractors lack the margin upside available to…

STRL $16B
Value Investors Club

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

PYPL $45B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $99B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

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