Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Today
12m ago KSTR KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun 1h ago ACIW $5.3B ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights From X
Broken Moats on X
The July-to-current rotation reflects short covering and an unwind of long semiconductor trades, with recent AI laggard rallies vulnerable as SaaS earnings approach.
Broken Moats on X
Zillow faces commission-model disruption, rental competition and MLS exclusivity litigation that could weaken its home-search audience and advertising revenue.
Broken Moats on X
SUJA's collapsed IPO masks years of negative free cash flow, high debt and a capital-intensive prebiotic soda push, while sponsor ownership creates lockup risk.
Broken Moats on X
Walmart plans major late-Q2 price investments, pressuring Target’s traffic, margins and valuation as consumers tighten spending.
Broken Moats on X
$mrna secondary coming in 21.05 minutes
Broken Moats on X
Software stocks face a post-options-expiration squeeze unwind as earnings expose AI-driven competition, cloud costs and weaknesses in seat-based models. Workday rumor news marked the peak counter-narrative.
Broken Moats on X
Healthcare stocks with no Moderna exposure rallied more than 10%, creating an opening for secondary offerings to strengthen fragile balance sheets.
junkbondinvestor on X
NEBIUS GROUP TO OFFER $4.5 BILLION OF CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES Wow, that's a monster convert issuance. But when your stock is this volatile, that vol is an asset. $NBIS https://t.co/B3VKZw72rx
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026 -11.0%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Capital Connoisseur 
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
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