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Is The Market Turning The Page?

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From X

@aleabitoreddit 22m ago

Serenity on X

I mean it's probably more important to look at the actions over words... I'm sure $GOOGL trying to secure supply until 2035, would spark other hyperscalers to follow suit as well. They probably wouldn't be going 9 years out if they thought there would be overflooding in supply from China in 2 years.

@stockgutter 33m ago 1 click

SG on X

I had someone pull the audio and had it electronically transcribed. There was one sentence that was along the lines you describe: "Papaya respectfully disagrees with the judgment rendered in that SDNY case. It's appealing that judgment while at the same time planning to find a way to pay in full whatever the final amount may be." To me that is hardly an assurance. I think they pay a good part of it eventually, but only with their feet to the fire. $FIRY

@aleabitoreddit 55m ago

Serenity on X

Nobody said $SIVE was going to be the sole laser provider for Ayar for all generations. 2nd gen Supernova was 16x wavelength that they confirmed Sivers. Ayar is expected to do multi-vendor for lasers, would be stupid not to. Originally disclosed suppliers were $LITE, $MTSI, and $SIVE, but there's probably only a few companies that can do this new design. For their new demonstration at OCP it's 8x 200mW range, $LITE is probably the closest one technologically to Ayar's OCP announcement, with 8x 250 mW demonstrated at ECOC just last month that they're targeting availability later in 2027. I don't see anything where $MTSI has demonstrated remotely similar capabilities yet. Macom were saying they were still working on 75 mW qualifications targeting production H2 2027. $SIVE has lower power 8/16 channel specs, and individual 200 mW lasers for NPO. I think this might relate to their Seminex partnership for UHP multi channel variants that they were targeting for 2027 so high confidence they'll meet technology specs eventually, more of a matter of timing. But basically new announced configuration from Ayar, can't really make any assumptions here yet, will need to wait for earnings of these players.

@ACapitalLP 1h ago

A Capital on X

@SurfShopCapital Did $WULF price a convert at the lows?

@StableBread 2h ago

Fajasy on X

$DGXX 👀👍🏽 https://t.co/lMgmE36ds0

@aleabitoreddit 2h ago 1 click

Serenity on X

@BullishWiener I'm happy $GOOGL is being more aggressive with supply procurement like $NVDA was. They've been way too complacent and let others bottleneck their own supply chain. CSPs and hyperscalers will be in a rude awakening if they're hoping for Chinese memory to save them.

@ACapitalLP 2h ago

A Capital on X

The relative underperformance in $CIFR is pretty remarkable. Down ~23% over three days versus ~5% for $CORZ, $RIOT and $WULF. Obviously the convert and associated hedging have created a significant technical overhang, but with the deal now priced, have to wonder how much of this divergence closes once the flows normalize. $CIFR has a lot of catching up to do….

@aleabitoreddit 2h ago

Serenity on X

$GOOGL is now discussing deals to extend their memory LTAs through 2035 from KeyBanc channel checks. Samsung already has 70% of their capacity allocated through 2031, and this move would suggest a more durable cycle for $MU, $SKHY, and the others. They also expect HBM prices up 80% to 100% in the Q1 2027. Having all your capacity potentially allocated out into 2035 via LTAs would ease a lot of memory durability fears.

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