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Wednesday, October 21, 2026· 11274 stock ideas· 218 writers·
21,957 views· 10,260 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Founder and CEO Andrew Karos hasn’t reported a single sale of Boost Run $BRUN stock since the listing. He takes a $1.00/year salary, owns 44.6% of the shares, and controls 87% of the vote, so his pay comes almost entirely through the stock. Since my August update, the only open-market sales came from director Sean Goodrich, who holds his stake through Goodrich ILMJS LLC, an investor on Willow Lane’s side of the merger. Goodrich’s sales came after a forced warrant exercise. Once $BRUN closed at or above $18.00 on 20 of 30 trading days, Boost Run could redeem its warrants for $0.01 each, so after it called them on July 21, Goodrich paid $12.7M on August 19 to exercise his 1,101,986 warrants. He then sold 198,200 shares at $20.15 on August 27 and 500,000 at $14.00 on September 14 for $11.0M total, 86.8% of what the exercise cost him, and still holds 4,437,921 shares (8.2% of the Class A). So I don’t read the sales as a verdict on the business, since he sold about what the exercise cost him when he could have sold far more. Meanwhile, three executives have more stock coming. The compensation committee granted them 4.59M time-based restricted stock units (RSUs) on September 29, 5.5% of the shares outstanding. At the $16.65 grant-date price, the 4.59M RSUs are worth $76.4M, 42.5-45.0% of the $170-180M 2026 revenue estimate. Giving up 5.5% of the shares is expensive, but the grants give the CTO who runs all of $BRUN’s GPU deployments and the CFO who has to finance the GPUs a reason to stay through mid-2029. $BRUN still reports three material weaknesses, the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls. They’re in (1) IT general controls, (2) segregation of duties (keeping one person from handling a transaction end to end), and (3) the number of qualified accounting staff. $BRUN’s filing record hasn’t been clean either. Both 10-Qs came late, after notices of late filing on May 26 and August 14, and the original Q1 10-Q, filed June 1, called its disclosure controls effective until an amended Q1 10-Q on August 18 said they weren’t. I’m comfortable with the weaknesses for now, since (1) the S-4 (merger filing) disclosed all three before the merger, (2) the amendment didn’t change any reported numbers, and (3) $BRUN has hired a chief accounting officer, a COO, and a CIO to fix the gaps. But lenders, and any agency rating the parent-level debt $BRUN wants, will read the same filings.
@convequity

Convequity on X

WSJ’s “$750B Anthropic compute bill”, which includes deals still being negotiated, is overblown as a panic. It isn't $750B a year. It's spread over about 10 years. By year 5, the fixed compute bill is about $104B a year. The math, stress-tested: assume compute eats a deliberately punishing 56% of revenue (far above where a scaled AI lab should settle), still leaving a 20% operating margin after other costs of ~24%. $104B / 56% ≈ $186B revenue in year 5 $186B / ~$40B revenue per GW ≈ 4.6 GW required $186B is also only ~2.8x today's $67B run rate. That's ~23% growth a year for five years, far slower than Anthropic is growing now. Demand isn't the problem. On paper, 4.6 GW is well inside the ~13.8 GW Anthropic has already lined up according to our ABBX. And it mostly pays as capacity comes online. The catch: what if the GW roadmap doesn't fully materialise? Only ~1.9 GW is live today. Getting even 4.6 GW running on Earth means beating power shortages, slow permits and growing local opposition to data centres. So the real risk isn't demand, it's delivery. That's why $SPCX matters. If Starship makes orbital compute work, it sidesteps the grid, the permits and the politics. The tide lifts all boats, and Anthropic is one of the biggest.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Our AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) says the hyperscaler complex is not yet in bubble territory. Across the hyperscalers and neo-clouds we track, enterprise value relative to the capital invested in the business has fallen from 7.67x at the 15 May 2026 series start to 6.12x at the 15 Oct 2026 close. Two-year forward returns on that capital were 3.07x the cost of capital in Q2'26, down from Q1'26. Still comfortably value-creating, but the direction is lower, which fits this stage of the cycle: data centres and chips go on the books immediately while the revenue they earn arrives later. Q3 2026 reporting starts with Meta ($META) on Wed 21 Oct after the close, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon the following week. We will watch whether forward returns keep falling as the capital base grows ahead of revenue. Falling returns alongside rising valuation multiples would be our classic bubble signal.

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