Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
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19h ago STNE $2.3B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research 19h ago SBLK $3.4B Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii From X
Broken Moats on X
Software stocks face a post-options-expiration squeeze unwind as earnings expose AI-driven competition, cloud costs and weaknesses in seat-based models. Workday rumor news marked the peak counter-narrative.
Broken Moats on X
Healthcare stocks with no Moderna exposure rallied more than 10%, creating an opening for secondary offerings to strengthen fragile balance sheets.
junkbondinvestor on X
NEBIUS GROUP TO OFFER $4.5 BILLION OF CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES Wow, that's a monster convert issuance. But when your stock is this volatile, that vol is an asset. $NBIS https://t.co/B3VKZw72rx
junkbondinvestor on X
Hyperscalers need so much capital they're exporting their financing needs to...Australia $GOOG just mandated its first AUD deal. Issuance (called Kanagroo bonds) is up 40% y/y to ~A$60B (a new record) https://t.co/ZIypM3QiFx
junkbondinvestor on X
Whirlpool’s long-dated bonds trade at low dollar prices, offering less recovery downside and more upside to asset sales, M&A or a turnaround than the wider curve belly.
junkbondinvestor on X
Workday employees learning their new owner's first workstream will be headcount reduction $WDAY https://t.co/AIvTDIXGdo
Broken Moats on X
Workday’s proposed LBO financing is criticized as a levered private-credit mark-reset trade reliant on eventual public refinancing or an IPO exit.
junkbondinvestor on X
*SILVER LAKE IN TALKS TO BUY WORKDAY: REUTERS ~$43B enterprise value...would be one of the largest software buyouts EVER! $WDAY
Investor Letters
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TTMI 2026-08-25 TTM Technologies: Priced Like A Board Shop, Booked Like A Defense Prime
Jaden Mealy 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
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