Bullpen.News · the best place to find stock ideas

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.9T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 35m ago

35m ago META $1.9T

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology.

35m ago AAPL $5T

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology.

From X

@BarbarianCap Oct 1

Barbarian Capital on X

Raytheon Gets $24.4 Billion Navy Contract for Standard Missile-6 Interceptors $RTX https://t.co/uNGS51L1bU

@BarbarianCap Oct 1

Barbarian Capital on X

ON Semicondcutor to Buy Synaptics for Cash, Not Stock, in Downsized Deal $ON $SYNA https://t.co/ZBg5wXAYaX

@SowingAlphaSeed Oct 1 3 clicks

Farmer on X

Would be more interesting if it was $QQQ, but something like this seems good for hedging the market melt up possibility. I'm curious to see if the margin requirement turns out to be the standard 15% on IBKR. https://t.co/3hvxvkfJ1H

@leevalueroach Oct 1

Lee Roach on X

Good god $WY is getting low here. My guess is rates keep going up and assets like this trade down as people pour into yields. But eventually these become a load the boat up buy. Massive inflation hedges and owning large swaths of land creates multigenerational wealth. https://t.co/KvWmv9gBog

@calvinblissett Oct 1

Calvin Blissett on X

@JordanBoekel I have skimmed over $FINV, $LX made good money in $YUMC, looked at $PDD. I think management is even more important given regulatory risk and China and that is partly why I like $YB

@convequity Oct 1 3 clicks

Convequity on X

Renting AI capacity protects Microsoft ($MSFT) if the AI buildout busts. It leaves Microsoft exposed if compute gets scarce. On Q2 2026 data, Microsoft's implicit and off-balance-sheet infrastructure commitments were 17 times its headline borrowings according to our AI Bubble Barometer. 1. Microsoft signs a multi-year deal to rent capacity. The partner, a specialist AI cloud such as $IREN or Nebius ($NBIS), typically raises the capital, builds the site, buys the chips and owns the assets. 2. Construction risk, the risk that the GPUs lose value, and most of the financing sit with that partner and its lenders. 3. Microsoft swaps capital spending today for rental payments later. Compare Alphabet ($GOOGL) at 10.2 times. Almost all of its off-book commitments are purchase orders, $811bn of them, for chips and equipment Google will own. We read Microsoft's choice as less than full confidence in the buildout, and Google's as the opposite. In our view the market underweights the risk that compute gets scarce. The partners own any capacity beyond their Microsoft contracts and can sell it to whoever pays more. Microsoft would then have to wait or pay up, as it owns fewer of the data centres and chips it uses. That means higher compute costs and tighter margins. On our reading, Microsoft wins if AI demand falls short, because its partners carry most of the asset risk. If compute gets scarce, Microsoft loses, because renting gives it less control of supply, and Google wins because it will own the chips it ordered.

@P_Remarks Oct 1

Prepared Remarks on X

First $Orcl insider buy of >$1m since 2022 $3.5m from board member Stephen Rusckowski https://t.co/cmll9Lko4p

@BlueDuckCap Oct 1 1 click

BDC on X

I think $MCD has a better shot of finding a bottom near these levels than $NKE does. People still need to eat. MCD, while not healthy, is still a popular go-to for relatively cheap food (I know its not as cheap as it once was - but its all relative). And MCD still has durable unit growth to point to. Don't think they have brand issues nearly as severe as Nike does. Not advice. Just my 2c.

Free Recaps of the best new stock ideas, delivered every morning.

Read past recaps

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research 4h ago 2 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 23h ago 45 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $660B

SemiAnalysis 24h ago 9 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney 24h ago 18 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research 26h ago 20 clicks

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $660B

MBI Deep Dives 28h ago 10 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research 29h ago 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $208B

scuttleblurb 31h ago 9 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research 33h ago 25 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T

Cestrian Capital Research 34h ago 8 clicks

LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.1T

Value Investors Club Jul 18

Kraft Heinz: The Boring 2027 Long That Doesn't Need A Rich Multiple

Kraft Heinz expects brand investment and productivity gains to restore sales growth and protect 2027 margins against 4-5% cost inflation.

KHC $27B

The Alpha Analyst 25h ago

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SBUX $109BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 84 clicks

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Nvidia’s Ian Buck says CUDA’s software ecosystem, GPU flexibility and annual Vera Rubin upgrades lower token costs as agentic AI pushes…

NVDA $5.2T

Key Context by Tae Kim 43h ago 3 clicks

Everyone wants to defend CoreWeave but who really knows

CoreWeave faces fresh skepticism as another AI trade selloff collides with bullish defenses of the company.

CRWV $34B

The Technology Letter 43h ago 2 clicks

A Conversation With Ari Emanuel About Entertainment and AI

Ari Emanuel discusses AI’s impact on Hollywood, live events, social networks and the future of advertising.

TKO $33B

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 43h ago 6 clicks

RTX Q3 Preview: Two Growth Engines Make This Aerospace And Defense Leader A 'Buy'

RTX’s $289 billion backlog, including $119 billion in defense, supports growth from defense contracts and commercial aerospace aftermarket…

RTX $247B

Blake Winiecki Oct 14 3 clicks

Coherent | Management Call

COHR $52B

P Equity Research Oct 14 17 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $660B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 23 clicks

Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…

V $731B

C Jessen Oct 14 35 clicks

Latest News

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Farmer on X

Lee Roach on X

Calvin Blissett on X

Convequity on X

Prepared Remarks on X

BDC on X

Investor Letters

Recent recaps

Latest recap

Publications we follow

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 231

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors