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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I revalued American West Metals $AWMLF after the new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project in Arctic Canada, which replaced a first-pass preliminary economic assessment (PEA). At AUD$0.029, $AWMLF’s market cap is ~US$24.6M on 1,229.6M shares, with no new shares since my August write-up. Its EV is ~US$29.2M, measured as in August (US$24.6M market cap + US$8.4M Taurus royalty liability − US$3.8M of cash). In August, I valued Storm at 0.2-0.3x $AWMLF’s share of the PEA NPV after the Taurus royalty (~US$110M), for US$22-33M. The PFS already deducts the royalty, so $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$119M base case is ~US$95M, or US$19-29M on the same multiple. Today’s ~US$29.2M EV is just above the US$19-29M range, which leaves at most ~US$10M of the EV for West Desert, its zinc-indium deposit in Utah. I’m keeping the 0.2-0.3x even with a maiden reserve, since (1) the part of the build Ocean Partners’ US$40M loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M, and (2) the higher copper price holds up the NPV. At the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, $AWMLF’s share would be ~US$41M, worth just US$8-12M at the same multiple. At spot copper, the same 0.2-0.3x of $AWMLF’s ~US$186M share is US$37-56M. At AUD$0.025, the price my bull case assumes for the next placement (a stock sale to selected investors), $AWMLF’s EV would be ~0.27x its share of Storm’s NPV, within my 0.2-0.3x range. In August, my worst case was the WD26 assays (from West Desert’s 2026 drill holes) disappointing, the PFS coming back with higher capex or weaker recoveries, and the next raise pricing at a discount instead of a premium. The PFS came back with the higher capex I flagged, the next placement will almost certainly price below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, and the assays are still pending. So I’d still put the odds of losing half or more over the next 12 months at about 1/3, which from US$0.020 means US$0.010 or lower. My August bull case (Storm at 0.4-0.5x plus US$15-25M for West Desert) now requires the DFS (the next, more detailed study) to hold the PFS’s economics and the WD26 assays to confirm the visual logs. The bull case supports US$53-73M of market value. On ~1,630M shares after an AUD$10M placement at AUD$0.025, the bull case is worth US$0.033-0.045/share, down from US$0.043-0.057 in August, when I expected the next raise to price higher (~1,400M shares after the raise). So from US$0.020/share, you’re risking a US$0.010 loss (-50%) in the worst case for a US$0.013-0.025 gain (+63% to +123%) in the bull case, before any U.S. government funding for West Desert, which none of my cases counts.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.

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