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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

$NTWO, the SPAC taking robot-safety maker FORT Robotics public, may bring FORT only ~$41-59M of cash before fees, not the ~$74M its trust and private placement (PIPE) add up to, since the two overlap. The trust (the IPO cash held for shareholders) has ~$33M left after holders cashed out 82% of it on October 28, and the PIPE adds $41.25M. But PIPE investors can meet their commitments by keeping $NTWO shares in the trust instead of cashing them out, and the 10-Q says holders of ~1.41M shares (~$15M) had shown interest in doing so as of September 30, so the ~$74M counts those shares twice. The $41.25M PIPE sets the floor, and the other ~1.64M public shares in the trust add up to ~$17.8M more if their holders don't cash out at the merger vote. One cost did come down: BTIG, the bank that ran the 2024 IPO, agreed to take $2.0M at closing instead of $6.04M. The 10-Q also shows $NTWO hired Donerail, a firm affiliated with William Wyatt, as a deal advisor on September 29, the day Wyatt resigned from the board, for $350,000 plus a stake in 599,166 founder shares held by the sponsor (the group that set up $NTWO), so it barely touches FORT's cash. In my September 16 deep dive, the deal would bring in $200.8M before fees if no holders cashed out, or $39.73M if 95% did, so ~$41-59M lands it near the low end. So I read the deal as a ~$41M private round with a Nasdaq listing attached, plus whatever public holders decide to leave in the trust. What I'd want to see in the merger filing (S-4), which still hasn't been filed: 1) Revenue: FORT's audited 2025 revenue and its 2026 revenue through at least Q2. 2) New cash: How many of the ~1.41M shares end up counting toward the PIPE instead of new cash. 3) Fees: The full cost to close, which decides how much of the ~$41-59M FORT keeps.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

There’s a massive AI-driven puke underway, cascading into L/S unwinds and exacerbating the selling pressure across the market. Inevitably, some non-AI names are getting caught in the crossfire and selling off for reasons entirely divorced from fundamentals. The opportunity is finding stocks with idiosyncratic catalysts that can force a re-rating toward intrinsic value, independent of broader market sentiment. A few that come to mind: $FLEX — Axiom spin $KBR — Trinzic spin $CODI — Asset sales $VOYA — Activism What else looks massively dislocated with a tangible catalyst to close the valuation gap?..
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root's $ROOT annualized premium run rate (premiums in force) fell 5.4% y/y in Q3, nearly double Q2's 2.8% drop, as larger carriers cut prices and Root gave up direct-to-consumer growth to protect returns. Policy growth offset the lower premium per policy in Q1, but policies in force were flat from June at 484k (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% y/y, to $1,441. $ROOT's gross accident period loss ratio (losses from crashes in the quarter over premium earned) rose 4.6 points y/y, to 61.1%, but only 1.6 points from Q3 2025's first estimate of 59.5%, which $ROOT has since revised down to 56.5%. The 10-Q blames (1) higher repair and medical costs per claim, (2) more frequent claims, and (3) a shift in channel mix, so claims costs are rising while premium per policy falls, though 61.1% is still inside $ROOT's 60-65% target range. The net combined ratio (losses plus expenses over premium; under 100% is an underwriting profit) improved 4.9 points y/y, to 97.2%, but ~4.2 points of that is Carvana warrant expense falling $15.3M after a one-time catch-up in Q3 2025, so the underlying gain was under a point. $ROOT's Q3 letter to shareholders says it repurchased $36.2M of stock "during the third quarter," but the 10-Q shows $15.5M in Q3, down from over $20M in Q2; the $36.2M is the total since the May authorization, with $38.8M left as of September 30. $ROOT also began deploying its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its largest improvement in predictive power to date, and which it says lets it cut rates for better drivers while keeping its target returns. At ~$56/share, $ROOT trades at ~2.6x its $327.0M book value as of September 30, the low end of the $55-80 base case in my August 10 update, on a Q3 annualized ROE of ~18%, the low end of that case's 18-22%. So I read Q3 as $ROOT playing the soft market the way I expected, holding its margins and shrinking rather than buying growth, which keeps the stock priced as if it never grows again. What I'd want to see from here: 1) Policies: Whether policies in force grow from the flat 484k once the new pricing model reaches more of the book. 2) Partnerships: Whether new business through partners and independent agents, up 19% y/y in Q3 and now 52% of the total, keeps growing. 3) Loss ratio: Whether 2026's first estimates come down a year later, like Q1-Q3 2025 did.

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