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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Where tf did all those crap accounts and "analysts" who pitched buying $CCXI (now $AGLT), pumpers, and degens go? I thought I was regarded for not buying the only humanoid listed company in the U.S!!! ... At least according the 4-5 accounts that blocked me for calling out their sh*t DD or simply disagreeing w/their thesis. Thought it was supposed to run up 500% post SPAC like FinTwit claimed??! Thought I was completely missing the point?? "99% of households haven't heard of the stock. Imagine when they do." That was another one of the "arguments" I heard quite often. 😅 Even offered my full deep dive for completely free to read. 🤷‍♂️
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
HKTGF · long

Hikari Tsushin INC

Hikari Tsushin compounded shareholder equity at 17% annually over 15 years while its shares declined modestly in the past year.

HKTGF $11B
Value Investors Club

My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $19B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

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