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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The cash flow statement adds share-based compensation back to operating cash flow, since it's a non-cash expense: the company paid its employees in shares, not cash. Over the 12 months through October 2022, Intuit $INTU had $3.81 billion of free cash flow, a 3.5% yield on its $109 billion market value. Move its $1.45 billion of share-based compensation to financing activities, and the yield falls to 2.2%. That's roughly $2.20 of free cash flow per year for every $100 of Intuit stock, not $3.50.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Is Freedom the one subsidizing itself and financial ecosystem through that whole share issuance mechanism nuance? Given that can’t they not really afford to burn money on an uncertain payback in marketplace? This could be the “dagger” toppling them and their pyramaid scheme esque structure which would benefit $KSPI. This is disconfirming evidence so in the spirit of Darwin I will be monitoring this to see how it plays out. I will try and gather the specifics on what I’m alluding to and come back to this
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
ZTS · long

Zoetis INC

Zoetis, the animal prescription-medicines company, is presented as a long investment despite concerns around its 2026 and 2027 outlook.

ZTS $34B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $20B
Hated Moats

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $95B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Quick Value #315 - Zoetis (ZTS)

Zoetis trades at about 11x 2026 earnings after falling more than 60% from its peak, as disappointing launches and safety issues pressure…

ZTS $34B
Value Don't Lie

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