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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Reviva Pharmaceuticals $RVPH now plans to apply to relist on Nasdaq in H1 2027, and its December 18 annual meeting asks shareholders to approve a reverse split of up to 1-for-100 to get there, nine months after its last one. Nasdaq suspended $RVPH on May 14 for trading below its $1.00 minimum bid price, and the stock has traded on the OTC since. At $0.35/share, $RVPH's market cap is ~$4.6M against $17.5M of cash as of September 30, or ~26% of its ~$1.33/share of cash. In my August 20 update, I wrote that steady ATM dilution looked paused, since Reviva said it doesn't expect to use its $50M ATM (selling new shares straight into the market) while it's quoted on the OTC. $RVPH's Q3 10-Q, filed November 13, says the same, and adds that the shelf registration behind the ATM expires February 13, 2027. And a company Reviva's size (under $75M of public float) needs an exchange listing to file a new shelf. RECOVER-2, the second Phase 3 trial of Reviva's schizophrenia drug brilaroxazine, plus the approval filing will cost $50-55M, CEO Laxminarayan Bhat said on an April fireside chat, about 3x Reviva's cash. The 10-Q says Reviva has no committed external sources of capital, and the Q3 earnings release still lists partnering as "pursuing partnership opportunities." So I read the reverse split and the relisting as the end of the pause in dilution: Back on Nasdaq, Reviva could sell stock again, through a new shelf or a public offering, to cover most of the $50-55M before RECOVER-2 starts. Cash fell $2.4M in Q3, and Reviva still says the $17.5M covers outlays "into the third quarter of 2027," close to the "into July 2027" it gave in August. The U.S. patent office also granted Track One priority examination to the patent application on a new formulation of brilaroxazine, which could extend the drug's protection to 2046. Track One aims for a final decision within ~12 months, and the decision can be a rejection.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
BAX · long

Baxter International INC

Baxter International sells IV solutions, infusion pumps and other essential medical products to hospitals, clinics and home-care providers.

BAX $13B
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