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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for recently featured stocks.

CROX $7.5B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 2 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If you want to see the most notable changes (new, updated, removed) for any S&P 500 company every quarter, this page I built keeps track of that automatically. My SEC reading tool diff's each filing against the previous one, identifies exactly what changed w/in the filing and tables (footnotes included), and then uses the AI I've trained to flag the most notable changes. Those most notable changes are what's shown on this page. Not every single change (most are not worth highlighting; like legal language or something small). Click on any of them and it'll show you that exactly (image shows example for $FDX). Then you can click on any of the changes to jump to the exact location on the filing itself. Or simply open and read the latest 10-Q or 10-K on SECSift for free (no account required). See it here:
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MIDD · long

Middleby CORP

Middleby trades at about 11 times EBITDA, below its history and peers, as a sharper management focus is expected to address the commercial…

MIDD $6.1B
Value Investors Club

Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.2B
Shallow Dives

TIC Solutions: Thesis Check

TIC Solutions' NV5 merger lifted consulting and geospatial growth and margins, while its 52%-of-revenue inspection unit stayed flat after…

TIC $2.3B
Kairos Research

FactSet’s Take-Private Rumours

FactSet is drawing Thoma Bravo and Hellman & Friedman take-private interest, with its subscription retention, cash generation and modest…

FDS $12B
Global Outperformers

Visa Inc update

Visa and Mastercard meet 15% five-year IRR targets at 25x and 26x 2026 earnings, while American Express needs a wider margin for…

AXP $215B
Global Outperformers

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