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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, reported its most profitable quarter yet on Tuesday, in the same 8-K that announced President and CFO Elena Gomez is stepping down. I bought $TOST as a long-term hold when I wrote it up on June 2 at $24/share. It closed Friday at $34.67, up 44.5% since then, and 3.4% above its $33.53 close before the report. Here’s what stood out in the Q3 report: → Locations: ~8,500 net adds, taking 2026 to ~25,000 through September (~7,000 in Q1 and ~9,500 in Q2), ahead of the 30,000/year pace my thesis requires. Total locations reached ~189,000, up 21%. → Recurring gross profit: Up 27% to $642M (non-GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit). $TOST’s total take rate (recurring gross profit as a share of the payment volume it processes) rose to 1.04% from 0.98% a year ago, per Gomez on the Q3 call. → Profit: GAAP operating income nearly doubled to $165M from $84M, and net income rose to $169M from $105M, or $0.29/diluted share. → Adjusted EBITDA: $240M, above the $210-220M guide and up from $176M a year ago. → Free cash flow: $181M, up from $153M, but only 75% of adjusted EBITDA, since $TOST chose to buy and hold more hardware inventory (due to rising memory prices). Gomez expects conversion to improve in Q4. → Buybacks: None in Q3, after $486M in H1 2026, with ~$100M left on the authorization. $TOST also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guide for the third time in 2026, to $840-850M, and now expects recurring gross profit to grow 26% (up from 23-25%). Safe to say the core business is running ahead of my thesis.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The two things I'm excited about are Gen G vs. T1... and new NASA's $10 Billion contract to begin settling on the moon. NASA selected: - $SPCX (SpaceX) - Blue Origin - $FLY (Firefly) - $LUNR (Lunar) - $LMT (Lockheed Martin Space) - $NOC (Northrop Grumman Space) - $VOYG (Voyager) - iSpace US to compete for future lunar delivery missions - $1.3B in launch and orbital transportation orders awarded to Arrow Science, Blue Origin, and Impulse Space. - $94 million for Blue Origin to deliver NASA's nuclear powered PROMISE rover - Existing CLPS 1 contract ceiling raised from $2.6B to $4.2B. - NASA also announced awards to Honeybee Robotics, a Blue Origin company, $RDW for a lunar power and communications tower

Investor Letters

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

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Daniel Romero 6 clicks

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Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

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