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Friday, November 13, 2026

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 2 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

I wanted to think about it for a bit before responding and time go away from me this week. I think NBCU makes a lot of sense as an acquisition for Netflix $NFLX given its size and the optionality it provides the company. However beyond the tax part, getting this deal through antitrust will not be easy and integration will be even harder given all the moving parts to an organization of NBCU's size and Netflix's current culture as a tech company. $LION is much easier tuck-in acquisition on both those fronts.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My personal opinion is that Kress leadership is negative for $NVDA centric ecosystems and its financing. Companies like $COHR that supply everyone, with long term visibility are more isolated. As for some of the commentary: Kress reportedly “challenged some of Huang’s proposed investments in customers, including deals involving Lambda (Neocloud)” Jensen later called her “A deer in the headlights”. And said she was “A reporting CFO”, not someone who is able to make strategic decisions… In regards to decisions made where Nvidia could build a moat against hyperscaler diversification. Reports have also said CSP executives have now considered $AMD and $GOOGL TPUs following Jensen’s departure. But didn’t do so earlier in fears of retaliation from Jensen Huang.
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

SFR REIT VineBrook Stops Buybacks, Flags Upcoming Maturities @LeylaKuni I talk about REITs because stuff like this happens. VineBrook is a nontraded REIT which claims a NAV of $50 but tenders for shares at $33/share. Average home is expected to sell for $129k each. You can get Single Family Home Exposure by buying $INVH which is operating from a position of strength by selling homes between $300k/home to $600k/home to buy back their stock trading at $270k/home. Pays a dividend of 4.5%, covers interest payment 4.1 times, and bought back $1 billion of shares since Q4 of 2025 or roughly 6.1% of the S/O. I think shares are worth $37 to $50 and you can buy shares for $26/27!!! ********************************* From Bisnow The nontraded single-family rental home REIT also disclosed that it has $650.8M of debt maturing within a year, and it doesn’t have liquidity to satisfy those obligations, AltsWire reported. VineBrook owned about 20,500 single-family rental homes in 21 states as of Sept. 30. Its occupancy fell from 94.7% to 93.5% year-over-year, but its average monthly rent rose from $1,339 to $1,460, AltsWire reported. The REIT’s board approved a change to stop processing share repurchase requests on Oct. 26, three weeks after completing the $30M tender offer at $33 a share. That was 34% below the per-share net asset value of about $50 on Sept. 30. The $30M would buy about 909,000 shares, but about 2.75 million shares were tendered but not withdrawn before the offer expired Oct. 5. The REIT said shares not purchased would be returned. The tender offer was VineBrook's first broad liquidity opportunity since it suspended its share repurchase plan in December 2022, except in cases of death, disability or similar hardship, AltsWire reported. The new share buyback halt doesn’t include those exceptions. VineBrook also disclosed that it has two MetLife notes that will mature in March and August, a JPMorgan Chase acquisition facility maturing in July, and convertible notes maturing in June, all contributing to the $650.8M of debt coming due within a year. The company is in discussions with potential lenders and expects to refinance the MetLife loans before maturity. Options to satisfy the obligations include partial loan paydowns, using extension options and selling homes. It has a one-year extension option on the JPMorgan facility. VineBrook plans over the next year to sell about 2,700 homes in its main portfolio for roughly $348M and sell 1,050 homes in its NextPoint Homes portfolio for about $284M. The REIT sold more than 2,300 homes between its two portfolios during the first nine months of this year, generating about $351M. Pretium Partners, another SFR company that manages more than 90,000 homes, agreed this week to pay $49.7M to settle charges from the Federal Trade Commission regarding misleading rental pricing practices. Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, or BREIT, wrote down $496.7M tied to 14 commercial properties and various single-family homes during Q3, up significantly from $27.4M over the same period a year earlier.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I personally love $AXTI here, even after I watched my position round trip $13 -> $140 -> $45. $100m->$500m in near term backlog driven by ordinary near term orders Annualized P/E compressed down to 18.8x Q4, before 2027 capacity expansion and price hikes. Now with confirmed counterparty visibility with $LITE and $COHR (before it was speculation). Of course China risk is always a wildcard, especially with the $NVDA scandals + China hawks in Washington. But fundamentally, it’s been in its best shape ever and I’m proud watching AXT grow up

Investor Letters

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Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $190B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $37B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks
RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $108B
MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

AppLovin: Deep Dive Analysis

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APP $134B
Hated Moats 1 click

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com dominates China’s online travel market with over 50% share and has grown international platform traffic from 1 million monthly…

TCOM $27B
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