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Friday, November 13, 2026

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From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

American West Metals $AWMLF had just ~1.6 quarters of cash left as of September 30 to fund Storm, its copper project in Arctic Canada. Its spending starts with the 2027 program of resource and geotechnical drilling, metallurgical test work, final engineering, and a sealift of fuel and supplies. Cash was AUD$5.45M (~US$3.8M) as of September 30, 1.58 quarters of funding at the September quarter’s AUD$3.45M operating outflow. Management expects spending to fall and isn’t planning a raise, but with the definitive feasibility study (DFS) still ahead, I’d expect a placement (a stock sale to selected investors) within the next two quarters. At AUD$0.029, a placement would price at least 35.6% below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, in October 2025 and May 2026. One the size of May’s (AUD$10M) at AUD$0.025, 13.8% below today’s price, would add 400M shares, 32.5% of the 1,229.6M count. The 371M listed options, struck at AUD$0.06 and expiring August 18, 2027, would bring in AUD$22.3M if exercised, but the stock would have to more than double first. Taurus Mining Royalty Fund, which bought a royalty on Storm, only pays its final US$4M (US$3.2M for $AWMLF’s 80%) once the resource reaches 400,000t of copper at 1.00% or better. Storm’s resource is unchanged at 276,000t, so reaching the milestone takes ~124,000t more, and the exploration target won’t count until drilling turns part of it into a resource. So a ~US$25M company has to fund ~US$55M of Storm’s build, and before that, pay for the DFS, most likely with placements priced below the last two.
@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

SFR REIT VineBrook Stops Buybacks, Flags Upcoming Maturities @LeylaKuni I talk about REITs because stuff like this happens. VineBrook is a nontraded REIT which claims a NAV of $50 but tenders for shares at $33/share. Average home is expected to sell for $129k each. You can get Single Family Home Exposure by buying $INVH which is operating from a position of strength by selling homes between $300k/home to $600k/home to buy back their stock trading at $270k/home. Pays a dividend of 4.5%, covers interest payment 4.1 times, and bought back $1 billion of shares since Q4 of 2025 or roughly 6.1% of the S/O. I think shares are worth $37 to $50 and you can buy shares for $26/27!!! ********************************* From Bisnow The nontraded single-family rental home REIT also disclosed that it has $650.8M of debt maturing within a year, and it doesn’t have liquidity to satisfy those obligations, AltsWire reported. VineBrook owned about 20,500 single-family rental homes in 21 states as of Sept. 30. Its occupancy fell from 94.7% to 93.5% year-over-year, but its average monthly rent rose from $1,339 to $1,460, AltsWire reported. The REIT’s board approved a change to stop processing share repurchase requests on Oct. 26, three weeks after completing the $30M tender offer at $33 a share. That was 34% below the per-share net asset value of about $50 on Sept. 30. The $30M would buy about 909,000 shares, but about 2.75 million shares were tendered but not withdrawn before the offer expired Oct. 5. The REIT said shares not purchased would be returned. The tender offer was VineBrook's first broad liquidity opportunity since it suspended its share repurchase plan in December 2022, except in cases of death, disability or similar hardship, AltsWire reported. The new share buyback halt doesn’t include those exceptions. VineBrook also disclosed that it has two MetLife notes that will mature in March and August, a JPMorgan Chase acquisition facility maturing in July, and convertible notes maturing in June, all contributing to the $650.8M of debt coming due within a year. The company is in discussions with potential lenders and expects to refinance the MetLife loans before maturity. Options to satisfy the obligations include partial loan paydowns, using extension options and selling homes. It has a one-year extension option on the JPMorgan facility. VineBrook plans over the next year to sell about 2,700 homes in its main portfolio for roughly $348M and sell 1,050 homes in its NextPoint Homes portfolio for about $284M. The REIT sold more than 2,300 homes between its two portfolios during the first nine months of this year, generating about $351M. Pretium Partners, another SFR company that manages more than 90,000 homes, agreed this week to pay $49.7M to settle charges from the Federal Trade Commission regarding misleading rental pricing practices. Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, or BREIT, wrote down $496.7M tied to 14 commercial properties and various single-family homes during Q3, up significantly from $27.4M over the same period a year earlier.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I personally love $AXTI here, even after I watched my position round trip $13 -> $140 -> $45. $100m->$500m in near term backlog driven by ordinary near term orders Annualized P/E compressed down to 18.8x Q4, before 2027 capacity expansion and price hikes. Now with confirmed counterparty visibility with $LITE and $COHR (before it was speculation). Of course China risk is always a wildcard, especially with the $NVDA scandals + China hawks in Washington. But fundamentally, it’s been in its best shape ever and I’m proud watching AXT grow up

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