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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL 3 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 and last year's Q3 (this year's Q2 was actually higher than last year's Q3!). But EPS should definitely be above analyst estimates and could possibly top Q2 EPS. Market doesn't understand how the hedges on the specialty alcohol work. Q2 EPS were penalized simply because the price of ethanol fell a bit during Q2. Well... during Q3, the price of ethanol rocketed higher. Therefore, even though Q2 had a much better average crush margin than Q3, it's possible Q3 could have higher EPS due to how these hedges work. To be clear - on an annual basis - the hedging has no impact. $ALTO is just locking in profit margin. But since it's not hedge accounting... it has an impact on each quarter's earnings. ALTO's business is operating very well. They're posting quarter after quarter of profitable earnings. Q4 should be solid as well and crush margins are strengthening again. Once California E15 kicks in (1/1/2027) then margins will strengthen further. Additionally: It sounds like passage of farm bill that includes E15 is very likely by end of this year. Check out this Politico article highlighting how the GOP is likely to pass a ton of stuff before the end of the year: "Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.” The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jump-start matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well." "Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance. “If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”"
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If the AI model Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) is training to read malware works, it could also take over the one step in its ransomware recovery software that engineers still do by hand. Nubeva’s Ransomware Reversal software, or NuRR, copies the encryption keys during an attack, but someone still has to figure out how ransomware uses them before Nubeva can build a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption). AI agents have run NuRR’s routine support (bug fixes, support tickets, and product maintenance) for some time, CEO Randy Chou said, but Nubeva’s engineers still handle each live ransomware case by hand. Nubeva’s first granted patent finds the encryption method by running the ransomware in a sandbox (an isolated test computer) and matching the result to a library of standard methods. But the sandbox method breaks down in two cases Chou described, since homemade encryption (encryption ransomware authors write themselves) won’t match any standard method, and malware that detects the sandbox does nothing. A model that reads the malware’s compiled code could get around both problems, since (1) homemade encryption still shows up in the code as steps a model can follow, and (2) the malware’s checks for a real computer only run when the malware runs, so reading the code never triggers the checks. With NuRR supplying the keys and the model working out the encryption method, Nubeva would have both inputs a decryptor needs without an engineer taking the ransomware apart by hand. Frontier models, the most advanced AI models from labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, can already work out what some binaries (compiled programs) do just by reading their code. Anthropic said in April 2026 that its Claude Mythos Preview model can take “a closed-source, stripped binary,” meaning one with its function and variable names removed, and reconstruct “(plausible) source code for what it does.” Obfuscation (scrambling code to hide its purpose) is harder for a model to get past, since compressed malware keeps its real code hidden until it runs. Chou blamed obfuscation for the ~70% of malware binaries frontier models can’t figure out, so Nubeva’s model still has to prove it can do better. Chou didn’t connect the model to NuRR in his October 5, 2026 interview, but working out the encryption method is the same step Nubeva’s FY2026 annual filings say its AI decryptor builder will automate. Therefore, if the model works on live ransomware, NuRR could take on more cases at once, easing the capacity problem that cost Nubeva its biggest customer in 2023 (risk advisory firm Kroll).

Investor Letters

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💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $18MGUTS $12M
PETITION 2 clicks

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $71M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $391M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $672M
Value Investors Club

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $920M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $920M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $972M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

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