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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

From X

@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.5B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $800M
Stock Thoughts

Dance with the Devil (Nasdaq: ILPT)

ILPT’s Hawaii ground leases and US warehouse portfolio are improving, while five-year fixed-rate refinancing eases the debt burden created…

ILPT $421M
Real Assets, Real Value

Everyone Bought the Shovels

Element Solutions sells consumable chipmaking chemistry, with a $75 target from $44 based on an AI-driven semiconductor-materials rerating.

ESI $7.9B
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