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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I calculated how much of the Storm copper project’s build American West Metals $AWMLF has to fund beyond a US$40M loan from Storm’s future copper buyer, after its new pre-feasibility study (PFS). Ocean Partners, the metals trader that holds Storm’s offtake (the right to buy all of its output), agreed in April 2025 to lend up to US$40M of the initial capex defined by the PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) through a senior secured loan, subject to a bankable feasibility study and a final investment decision (FID). The loan covered 84.4% of the PEA’s US$47.4M, and covers 49.4% of the PFS’s US$81.0M. Counting pre-development, the part of Storm’s US$108.3M pre-production cost that the loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M from US$22.1M. $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$68.3M gap is ~US$55M, more than twice its ~US$24.6M market cap. The PFS lists offtake prepayments, project debt, build-own-operate deals, and Canadian critical minerals programs as non-dilutive options. Its cash flow model also counts a ~US$24M refund from Canada’s 30% clean technology manufacturing tax credit, but the refund only arrives in the second year of production, after construction. Aston Bay Holdings (TSXV: BAY), which owns the other 20% of Storm, only starts funding its share after the DFS (the next, more detailed study) and the FID, so $AWMLF pays for everything until then. After the FID, Aston Bay’s 20% of the gap is ~US$14M, more than its own ~US$11M market cap. If Aston Bay doesn’t pay, its stake gets diluted, and below 10% it turns into a 2% royalty. So $AWMLF may end up funding more than 80% of the build, and its stake in Storm would grow as well.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$ZIM @ZeeContrarian1 @Chuckyb22074706 @ROICRHODES @christankerfund @MarkGroskyEsq. How are we thinking about $HLAG circa ~600m incentive to close this thing before March record date (giving us Q4 26’ div and top up). Thoughts and why would be appreciated. @Chuckyb22074706 is the only one to really touch on this and has a good point about better directors potentially moving up the record date. @ZeeContrarian1 first love your content and evident clarity of thought, thank you! I feel like your thesis is bulletproof except for this risk? How do you think about it especially since if I’m not mistaken you haven’t really touched upon it.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN granted 6.23M RSUs in Q3, 7.4% of its 84.2M shares outstanding, and will expense $103.4M for them over a weighted-average 3 years, a cost its adjusted EBITDA excludes. The 6.23M includes the 4.59M granted to the CFO, CTO, and COO on September 29, and the 10-Q doesn't name who got the other 1.64M. Q3's stock comp was only $0.25M, since most of the RSUs came on September 29. $BRUN's adjusted EBITDA adds stock comp back, so from Q4 it will exclude ~$8.6M/quarter of RSU expense on average, equal to 47.9% of Q3's $18.0M of adjusted EBITDA. And $BRUN's 2026 equity plan still has 2,986,298 shares left to grant, another 3.5% of the shares outstanding. The bear, base, and bull cases in my October 19 update counted 88.8M fully diluted shares, including only the executives' 4.59M RSUs. The full 6.23M takes the count to 90.4M, which trims each case's per-share value by 1.8%.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

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Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

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TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MGRC · long

Mcgrath Rentcorp

McGrath RentCorp's conservatively financed hard assets, pricing growth and a struggling competitor, WSC, underpin the long thesis.

MGRC $3.1B
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Winning Cultures, Brutal Truths

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Behind the Balance Sheet

GPGI Inc.

GPGI, formerly CompoSecure, is David Cote’s $4.2 billion industrial acquisition platform, managed by Resolute Holdings for 2.5% of adjusted…

GPGI $4.5BRHLD $1.2B
Kairos Research

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