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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Have to give credit the squeeze in software is remarkable, they didn't even stop buying them with semis up n the open. Stocks like $MNDY flying 8% yesterday, $APPN up over 8% today (30% in a week after Barclays remained underweight with a price target roughly 40% current) after their closest comp reported very disappointing earnings and warned of demand and a restructuring.....truly incredible. Starting to give the $GRAL/ $TXG/ $TWST type manic move from a few weeks ago
@BlueDuckCap 3 clicks

BDC on X

This is a big deal. Strategic acquisition and verticalization of value based oncology care continues leaving $STLN as uniquely scare and thus strategic from here. AONC has no speciality pharma piece and yet is getting bought for 17x gross profit. $STLN is the last multi state actually-acquirable platform. What's left outside STLN is subscale: Utah Cancer Specialists (~40), Cancer Care Northwest (~30), Western Michigan (~30), plus Levitate Ridge's early West Coast platform. There are 2,000+ oncology groups in the US, but almost none with multi-state density. Cardinal has the smallest footprint and no VBC capability, which makes it the most plausible remaining strategic — followed by a payer (Carelon, Optum) or PE. Key point is that we believe $STLN is the much better asset and putting the 17x gross profit acquisition multiple on runrate 2027 estimates gets us ~$25 stock. Not advice.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $400M of ARR that Boost Run $BRUN is targeting by December 31 is already signed? Five of its seven contracts with disclosed terms can count toward the $400M target, since the July order and Cohere, $160.7M/year combined, don’t start until 2027. If Thinking Machines Lab’s GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the target, leaving $99.4M for contracts without disclosed terms. For comparison, the Q2 deck’s deployment schedule had $0.4B of the then-$1.9B of TCV in production by the end of Q2, with all of it live by Q1 2027. From there, the deck shows another $0.4B of TCV going into production in Q3 and another $0.4B in Q4, a straight line to $1.2B by year-end that management calls consistent with the $400M+ ARR target. The deck’s footnote says the Q3 figure is a management estimate “interpolated from disclosed metrics,” so the actual climb will likely be lumpier, with the June order alone starting November 30. Cohere’s racks start in Q2 2027, right after the deck’s schedule ends, so even without a new contract, $BRUN has signed deployments lined up through mid-2027. $BRUN’s last ARR figure was $145M as of June 30, from the Q2 call, so the Q3 report (expected in mid-November) will be the first check on H2 2026. A straight-line climb from $145M (as of June 30) to $400M by December 31 would mean $136.3M of H2 2026 revenue, in line with the $127.9-137.9M needed to hit the $170-180M of 2026 revenue its October 8 prospectus amendment still estimates. By quarter, that climb works out to $52.2M of revenue in Q3 and $84.1M in Q4, up from $31.1M in Q2. In other words, the year-end target is mostly contracted, and the risk is getting the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 3 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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