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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Expert Call | Lumentum & Marvell Deal

Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum targets optical supply, DSP synergies and AI data-center demand, while adding fab integration, customer-retention and regulatory risks.

LITE $48B
P Equity Research 2 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

As the headlines and memes arrive fast and furious on this feed regarding the latest revelations on Jensen, one name from yesteryear keeps coming to mind: Hank Greenberg. Is Jensen the Hank Greenberg of this cycle? The circumstances of their departures are quite different, but the implications could have meaningful parallels. $AIG had its tendrils in EVERYTHING at the peak of Hank's powers, just as $NVDA is in every nook and cranny of the AI trade today. Both companies ascended to an endemic status in their respective industries because of their leader's guile, will, aggressive use of capital, and other "financing arrangements". We know what happened with $AIG and the financial system in the post Hank-era, what's in store for $NVDA and all of the AI ecosystem players that rely on Jensen's backstops and other forms of circularity?
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I checked Root’s $ROOT Q3 against the base and bear cases from my August update, after the car insurer fell 24.1% in two days. $ROOT bought back 290,694 shares in Q3 at an average of $53.15/share ($15.5M), leaving $38.8M on the authorization, ~6% of today’s market cap. At $43.37/share, the market cap is $659M on 15.2M shares, or 2.0x the $327.0M book value as of September 30. Net of the $261.6M held outside the insurance subsidiaries, you’re paying $397M for the insurance operations, or 3.9x nine-month net income annualized (Q4 is the seasonally weak quarter). In August, my base case was $55-80/share (2.5-3.5x book on an 18-22% ROE), and my bear case $35-45 (1.5-2.0x book, with ROE compressing to 12-15%). Q3’s annualized ROE was ~18%, the bottom of the base case, while the stock now trades at the top of the bear case’s multiple.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
SLVM · long

Sylvamo CORP

Sylvamo, a $1.6 billion uncoated freesheet paper producer, has fallen about 60% from its November 2024 high above $95 to roughly $40.

SLVM $1.5B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $27B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $24B
Eagle Point Capital 1 click

When the Ducks are Quacking

Ford’s 1956 IPO sold 10.2 million shares at $63 each after Goldman Sachs helped resolve the Ford Foundation’s voting-rights problem.

F $50B
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