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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Not always right on timing, but I'm pretty confident long term they'll play out. Just look at $AXTI, everyone thought it was a dead company last year and InP substrates were a commodity. -> Q4 2025 gross margins: 20.9% -> Q1 2026: 29.6% -> Q2 2026: 44.9% -> Q3 2026: 56.0% -> Q4 2026: 60%+ est. With legacy memory like $ESMT, I did guess earnings correctly, they made a whopping $331M+ net income relative to $1.9B MC But stock still dropped somehow... but eventually as time passes out I'm personally confident majority will play out directionally right.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

This aged pretty well, when I said this last year in 2025, Clickhouse was a $6.7B company... Now as an update, their secondary valuation sits around ~$50B, which $NBIS owns 25%+ of. I've always liked Nebius the most because sum of parts, with all their lesser known subsidiaries growing alongside their core neocloud business. Including Avride (self-driving), Clickhouse, Toloka, and other subsidiaries that they owned. This year Nebius also acquired: - Tavily (web search and retrival) - Clarifai (Inference orchestration) Which scale independently as well (the others were integrated into Nebius Token Factory). Hard to view $NBIS as just another neocloud when it has billions in scaling value outside its core infrastructure business.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The FTC and eight states sued Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, on October 29, the day after its President and CFO Elena Gomez gave notice. The complaint alleges $TOST: → Enrolled restaurants in subscription add-ons they didn’t agree to. → Charged an undisclosed early termination fee of $150 for each month left on a contract. → Added a $0.99 fee to some online orders over $10 from September 2021 to July 2023, money that went to Toast rather than the restaurants. → Required 30 days’ written notice to cancel without clearly disclosing it, and treated a cancellation as a default on any Toast Capital loan, making the full balance due at once. → Advertised “24/7/365” support that customers say they couldn’t reach. The 10-Q says $TOST will “vigorously defend its interests” and can’t yet estimate a possible loss. CEO Aman Narang argued on the Q3 call that ROSCA (the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act, a federal law on online subscriptions) was never meant for negotiated business contracts: “If ROSCA were to apply to B2B custom-negotiated contracts in a B2B context, it would have huge implications for really the whole industry and business contracts in general.” He also said $TOST had been cooperating with the FTC “over the past year” before it sued, and that “how we settle the suit” won’t change Toast’s long-term path. With $1.89B of cash and marketable securities and no debt, $TOST can afford a fine, so the bigger risk to me is an injunction that could possibly change how it sells, prices, and cancels contracts.

Investor Letters

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks
EFXT · long

Enerflex LTD

Enerflex, a $3 billion natural gas infrastructure and equipment company, blends contracted energy-services cash flows with equipment…

EFXT $2.5B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

CRWV $27BNBIS $38B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

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