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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

$NOW's latest earnings show how slowly SaaS companies are moving to outcome-based pricing. One big reason is that work is hard to price by outcome when the outcome is hard to verify. Outside coding, customer service looks like the most verifiable work, and Sierra and Intercom have done well charging per resolved conversation. You might expect NOW to do the same for resolved tickets, but its business now reaches far beyond ticketing. Many work outcomes play out over weeks or months, while outcome-based pricing tends to pay for short-term results. Making an enterprise's work fully verifiable could be one of the biggest sources of value ahead. We expect startups to target this space, and it could unlock the next wave of AI.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Yesterday we recorded a podcast covering two potential deal situations including rumors of Marvell $MRVL acquiring Lumentum $LITE. The deal was confirmed a few minutes before the podcast was uploaded to YouTube this morning. As a Marvell shareholder I was not particularly happy about this deal as I discussed in the podcast and the price action late last week and this morning confirms the market feels the same way. You can check out the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube here:
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Burn-in testing puts chips through demanding conditions to help identify devices likely to fail early in use. Aehr Test Systems ($AEHR) supplies wafer-level burn-in systems. Cohu ($COHU) supplies equipment for other semiconductor tests. This testing becomes more valuable as manufacturers combine more chips into expensive packages and systems. One weak component can cause problems for an assembly worth far more than the chip itself. Finding that weakness before the equipment reaches a customer can therefore justify spending more on testing, because the failure can affect the larger assembly.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$LITE standalone would likely be up on earnings after their new $5B CPO/NPO announcement (separate from $NVDA). The margins on that are likely 60%+… which shows how profitable laser players would be at scale. (Greensboro alone would be $5B revenue/year) In terms of the $MRVL deal: - Extremely positive for Marvell strategically. Also makes remaining laser players very valuable - $LITE shareholders can cry though about the 1+ year overhang until deal goes through in 2028. There’s less independent price discovery as well since a lot of it will be pegged around 4.5 Marvell shares : 1 - I think Lumentum shareholders probably would be happier if Marvell shares didn’t crash before the deal was announced.. since it was originally valuing $LITE at $115B with a 23.9% premium. - Marvell dropping does show the downside of the deal straight away though, if it rose then $LITE shareholders might be a tad happier given valuation. Having a fixed dollar MC value floor probably would have been better than the 4.5x:1 ratio. There was a lot of long $LITE, short ___ pressuring other photonics valuations, so at least those trade pairs might unwind now

Investor Letters

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The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 1 click

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BRIOT $5.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click
AUTLF · long

Austal Limited

Austal is a naval and commercial shipbuilder operating in the U.S., Australia and Asia.

AUTLF $1.3B
Value Investors Club

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

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