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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Quick follow-up on $CRWV after the call...funding picture better than the release suggested: > Next DDTL expected to be IG at 7-7.5% and fund 90%+ of capex. Hasn’t launched yet. > The $9bn of prepayments is from signed contracts. $3bn+ of it is from recontracting existing GPUs. > 2027 capex flat at $37-39bn if they only build committed backlog. > Ampere and Hopper pricing up 30-50% QoQ, above original contract prices. That’s shortage pricing though. > ST deals at ~$40mm/MW vs $20-25mm on 4-5 yr contracts. > No new unsecured through 2027 at current yields and <$5bn of parent-level capital needed. They didn’t say where that comes from. ATM? > No downside case given for what happens if supply catches up. NT funding concern mostly answered. The open question is whether today’s pricing lasts. Thoughts?
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, not a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, nothing a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
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PAA Research on X

Of all the things in the $ANT IPO roadshow slide deck, there are THREE WORDS that really stood out to me: "FUNGIBLE COMPUTE POOL" (Slide 13) That's $AMZN, $GOOG, $NVDA, and $AMD. I doubt $NVDA shareholders think of their leading edge chips as "fungible" but the largest AI company does. Is there anything in the AI capital stack at this point that isn't "commoditized" or headed that way? The models, the chips, the shell, the hardware....

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