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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

The acquisition I have been asked the most about in the last couple of months is Western Union's $WU acquisition of International Money Express $IMXI Instead of responding to emails privately, I figured I would share some thoughts here. The deal in question is the $16 per share all cash acquisition of $IMXI by $WU that was announced on August 10, 2025 at a premium of over 72%. The stock currently trades well below the pre-deal price. There was no pre-deal rumor with this one. The spread/discount on this deal was initially massive (41%) because New York was withholding regulatory approval. The deal had already cleared federal antitrust. Then California came along and decided to review the transaction for a second time. This is the big holdup at this point and reminds me of the deal for Genworth Financial $GNW, which finally fell apart four years after it was announced. With $IMXI there were concerns that Western Union might not file for federal clearance (HSR) a second time after the first one expired a full year later. But Western Union in early October decided to file again and the spread recovered for a bit. The concern in the last few days and the double digit decline in $IMXI today is related to the outside date for the deal expiring today. The outside date (unless extended) is the absolutely drop dead date by which the companies have to complete the deal or they can walk. If Western Union decides today to extend the outside date, the stock will most likely rebound sharply even if California approval is still pending. Overall I don't participate in these kinds of situations but if were possible to hedge additional downside through put options that don't have massive premiums (they often do), this could turn out into a trade with low downside and high upside. My subjective probability that Western Union extends the date is 65%. The price action today in both $IMXI and $WU points to the extension not coming through. Obviously not investment advice and I have no position. I am wrong often.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I turned Toast’s $TOST 2027 framework into an adjusted EBITDA estimate, to see what the restaurant software and payments company trades at on next year’s numbers. Incoming CFO Michael Senno will own the 2027 numbers, and he already set the frame on the Q3 call. He said he’s “confident in the 20%+ framework” for recurring gross profit growth (Q4 is guided to 22-24%), but expects “very modest margin progression next year” after a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, since $TOST wants room to keep investing in its newer markets. Those newer markets (enterprise, international, and retail) are nearing $200M of ARR and doubling for a second straight year, per CEO Aman Narang, and Senno said the core business already earns margins over 40%. At $34.67/share, $TOST’s enterprise value is $18.3B ($20.1B market cap on 581M shares, less $1.89B of cash and marketable securities, with no debt), or 21.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. In my August 10 update, I said I’d add if a pullback took $TOST down to the high teens on forward EV/EBITDA. On the 2026 guide, that’s ~$29/share, which the stock briefly touched at the start of October. Reading Senno’s “very modest margin progression” as a margin near 2026’s ~36%, 20% recurring gross profit growth would mean ~$1.0B of 2027 adjusted EBITDA. So on 2027 numbers, the stock already trades at ~18x, in the high teens.

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