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Monday, November 9, 2026

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@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

We think memory consumption can keep growing while memory prices fall. Memory prices depend on how quickly supply grows, not only on how much demand grows. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. If new production and sales of distributor stock outpace demand, consumption can rise while prices decline. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. That stockpile could allow them to keep adding production capacity even if sanctions block further deliveries of the affected machines. Reports of large distributor inventories and falling spot prices for DDR memory point to a further source of supply. We have not verified the inventory estimates. If distributors start selling down the stock they accumulated in anticipation of shortages, that adds to supply and puts further pressure on prices. We hold SanDisk ($SNDK) for storage and high-bandwidth flash (HBF). HBF could let flash deliver data fast enough for more demanding computing tasks. That gives us a way to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.

Investor Letters

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STRL: 80 new electricians a week

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STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

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TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

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Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks
FND · long

FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS

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FND $5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

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