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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Clearwater Paper $CLW is a sitting duck for an aggressive activist. Stock is down 30% today. Management has zero at risk capital and all of the shares they own were given to them. No insider buys and only sells. Then this Stanford goofy comes in and buys their Augusta Mill for a ridiculously stupid valuation. He spent shareholders capital at the peak of the cycle for this capex pig at $1,184/ton. This mill has been a problem since day one and now is driving the stock down 30% today because they have to spend even more money on downtime for this POS. And then Mr. Arsen puts this POS in his header on LinkedIn. Only way they can realize value for this is by selling entire company or literally Arsen changing his name to Arson and torching this thing to the ground. The only thing Arsen is doing is torching shareholder capital here. There is no one stopping an activist here imo. Management owns 2% of the shares all from awards. No open market buys from insiders, only sells. Shareholders are visibly unhappy with say on pay support falling four years in a row and 2026 equity pay passed with only 54.5%. There is also no poison pill, all eight seats are up at the 2027 meeting and there is a fat change in control so management will get paid if you can get this dog shit sold. Also bank debt can be prepaid at par and that won't block a buyer. Suzano was exploring a bid in 2024 and Koch/Georgia-Pacific are logical buyers. Idea is to buy all the dog shit $CLW owns and shut it down and it fixes the oversupply in the market. Activist playbook is to buy a big block, flip the board, run a sales process and focus on capital discipline. I think you could sell this for $560/ton which is around $31/share, more than 2x current valuation. Management has blown their entire load on this dumb Augusta facility at the peak and it continues to cost shareholders who have at risk capital money. Management are employees who get paid no matter what happens. Activists should apply here. Fat pitch imo.

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